NFL Week 15 Pick Recap

Each week we'll be providing our pick recap to validate our performance and give everyone an in depth view of what our subscribers receive. Let's have a look at the selections below from week 15.

The GreenZone had a even week going 3-3 Even with that down turn we are still thoroughly positive for the year! Straight Bets are up 24.95 Units on the year, and exotics are up 14.85 Units! Bringing our season cumulative total to +39.8 Units good for a 39.8% return on a $10,000 bankroll.

The Yellow and RedZone were neutral as they finished 5-5, the system overall had a even weekend going 8-8 straight up. Above is a breakdown of the entire Zone performances, along with Bankroll return based on our recommended unit sizing of each GreenZone game and exotic wagers. For the record we only recommend and count towards our units the GreenZone games. 

Our published write-up and picks for Week 15 is below:

This is it, ladies and gentlemen!  We have reached the final countdown for the regular season with only three full weeks of NFL football remaining.  Let’s get one thing out of the way right from the start, we LOVE this weekend.  As we said on Thursday, that fantastic matchup was going to be a well-played, great game to watch, but there wasn’t any value at the initial spread.  We also said that IF one team gets up big, take whoever is down with a live or halftime line.  Well, when the Chargers got down 14 points, we took them live +7.5…what happens?  They “charge” (bad pun intended) back and win the fucking game outright.  Sometimes all the data modeling and experience makes us feel almost prophetic…we hope you got a little “non-published” units along with us to start the week.

That being said, we have a juiceful line-up of games this weekend (Sunday AND Saturday this wee!) that possess a lot of system value, but also are easy to get on board with from a smell test point of view.  Little bit of faves, little dawgs, little home, little away…you know the deal, we don’t care what the play is as long as it’s GREEN! 

For the exotics, we have our now standard 5-team teaser and parlay.  For both of those wagers it is going to be “to-risk” 0.5 Units on: DEN, SEA, PIT, DET, and PHI.  As we said earlier, we love the slate this week…it presents a nice opportunity to hit a couple more of these puppies before we are on to playoff football.

Exotic Bets this Week

[0.5 Units] 5-Game Parlay: DET, DEN, SEA, PIT, PHI - LOSS

[0.5 Units] 5-Game Teaser: DET, DEN, SEA, PIT, PHI- LOSS

 

[6.6 Units] Denver Broncos (-3) at home with Browns - LOSS

6.6 Units – DEN -5 or less

3.3 Units – DEN -5.5

No Action – DEN -6 or more

This game has a ton of value and the outcomes for these two teams last week likely has a lot to do with that.  The Browns squeaked out a win as home dogs against the Panthers (who have suddenly lost 5 games in a row, by the way) and the Broncos laid an absolute stinker on the road, losing against the 49ers who nobody, including us, saw coming.  Well, luckily for us, and you, we don’t overreact to recency bias the way the public market does.  There’s no doubt that momentum and the development of players and staffs over the course of the season are important, and we incorporate weighting into our modeling to account for it, but the week-to-week high/low swings by the public are usually overdone.  Our proprietary models have this as anywhere from a 5.5 to 8.5-point game in favor of the Broncos.  Did they look bad last week…yes.  Are they the better team, playing in a home stadium that has proved over the years to have more of an advantage than average stadiums, on a slightly shortened week, against a team that is a public darling….yes, yes, yes, and yes.  Both squads have relative strengths and weaknesses, but when we boil it all down we have the Broncos as a top-5ish team, facing off against the Browns who are still in our bottom-10.  That is value and that is a wheelhouse 60% winner for us.  We’ll take this play 10 times out of 10.

 

[6.6 Units] Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) at San Francisco - LOSS

6.6 Units – SEA -5 or less

3.3 Units – SEA -5.5

No Action – SEA -6 or more

As mentioned in the previous game commentary, the 49ers are getting some credit in this one for their performance last week against the Broncos.  This is a head-scratcher for us…almost feels too good to be true, but we have to trust our stuff.  We have the 49ers as a bottom-3 in the league team and they are still trotting out Nick Mullens at QB.  Nick had a good first start and has been serviceable, but he is going head to head against Russel Wilson and the Seahawks D that is starting to get hot.  The Seahawks, in general, have been getting better as the season progresses.  They are in the catbird seat for the first NFC Wildcard slot right now, so as long as they take care of biz the next couple weeks, they are in.  These guys know what’s at stake and have a proven track record of showing up down the stretch.  The numbers are firmly in favor of the Hawks winning by 6.5 to 7.5-points, so why this one is down to around -3.5 at time of writing, is beyond us.  Seattle stays hot and the 49ers remember they are playing for the #1 draft pick.

 

[6.6 Units] Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at home with Patriots - WIN

6.6 Units – PIT +1 or more

3.3 Units – pk ‘em

No Action – PIT -1 or more

Here we are again.  We get in these stretches where our models love one team, for better or worse, but we seem to be in a run here where we’ve been against the Patriots more than we’ve been on them.  Last week, we had the Dolphins, which was scary and worked out…just like we had the Titans at home when they dominated the Pats.  This one isn’t quite as scary, but it’s still going against arguably the greatest coach and quarterback of all-time in consecutive weeks.  Conner is still questionable, but did practice on a limited basis on Friday.  Whether he plays or not, we have the Steelers as a better overall team than the Patriots.  That’s pretty logical handicapping to understand.  Pittsburgh, per our valuation, is better than NE on a neutral field, so if they are at home and getting points…well, that is a textbook GreenZone value right there.  This is an important game for both teams, so we are anticipating these squads playing up to their full potential.  The problem for New England is that their defense is still not even up to a league average level.  The Dolphins put some good film together for the Steelers last weekend and the types of ways they exploited New England are not able to be corrected schematically in one week.  They were physically dominated up front and the Steelers O-line is even better.  If the Pats sell out against the run to help their soft front-7, Antonio Brown is more than capable of hitting some home runs.  We like the numbers, like getting some points at home, and think the matchup should give us a great shot at cashing one more time against the Patties.

 

[5.5 Units] Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Buffalo - WIN


5.5 Units – DET +2 or more

2.75 Units – DET +1 or +1.5

No Action – pk ‘em or DET -any points

This is the ugliest match-up of the week for us, as neither of these teams will be making the playoffs.  There are times when motivation comes into question late in the season, but we think both of these teams are still playing with pride and trying to get some wins.  The Lions went on the road last week and had a dominating win against the Cardinals.  It wasn’t sexy, but they were in control for the duration of the game.  The Cardinals and Bills have a lot of similarities, with both teams having strong defenses, but absolutely atrocious offenses.  The numbers have this game as about a pick ‘em for us, so we are taking the free points.  We anticipate the Lions using the same blueprint they did in wins against GB, New England, and the Cardinals last week…take care of the ball on offense, run clock, and make the opposing offense go the length of the field to get points.  If they are able to carbon copy what they did last week in AZ, and force the inept Bills offense to beat them, they will be just fine and get another ugly outright win.

  

[5.5 Units] Philadelphia Eagles (+11) at LA Rams - WIN

5.5 Units – PHI +7.5 or more

2.75 Units – PHI +7

No Action – PHI +6.5 or less

In Big Dick Nick we trust.  The Eagles are not the same team they were during the homestretch and playoffs last year, but they are starting the same guy at quarterback.  There is often quite a bit of uncertainty when going from starter to back-up, but for anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock for the last 12 months, this trade-off should be pretty understandable.  Our models have this as a 6ish point game.  It is up to +13 territory now, so even if there is a couple point difference between Foles and Wentz (which we don’t think there is…specially this year), we still have plenty of cushion room built in.  A double-digit, and now number in the teens, spread is a worst in the league vs. best in the league number.  The Eagles have been rocky pretty much all year, but they are nowhere even close to a bottom-5 team.  The Rams will win the game, but the Birds should play respectable football and even if they get taken to the woodshed a bit, the back door will be wiiiiideeee open.

 

[5.5 Units] New York Jets (+6) at home with Texans - LOSS

5.5 Units – NYJ +6 or more

2.75 Units – NYJ +5.5

No Action – NYJ +5 or less

Our models see this as a 4-point game.  This is up to +7, so it gets even more green at that level.  The Jets are banged up, but they have been banged up all year…it just is what it is.  Straight system play all the way without any caveats we feel are material enough to kick it out.  Trust…that’s all we can say here!


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