NFL Week 14 Pick Recap
Each week we'll be providing our pick recap to validate our performance and give everyone an in depth view of what our subscribers receive. Let's have a look at the selections below from week 14.
The GreenZone had a down week going 2-4. Even with that down turn we are still thoroughly positive for the year! Straight Bets are up 27.65 Units on the year, and exotics are up 15.85 Units! Bringing our season cumulative total to +43.5 Units good for a 43.5% return on a $10,000 bankroll.
The Yellow and RedZone were neutral as they finished 5-5, the system overall had a down weekend going 7-9 straight up. Below is a breakdown of the entire Zone performances, along with Bankroll return based on our recommended unit sizing of each GreenZone game and exotic wagers. For the record we only recommend and count towards our units the GreenZone games.
Our published write-up and picks for Week 14 is below:
Oh, baby, were we close to having an absolute blockbuster week last week, or what?! We still went 5-1 and stacked +19.4 Units, which is a monster week any way you slice it, though. We harp on it, harp on it, and harp on it some more…but the NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint. It’s easy to be short-sighted and get caught up in week-to-week swings, especially if your unit sizes are larger than you are actually comfortable losing. Folks lose their wit and start doing crazy things or get frustrated and shut it down altogether for periods and lose out on big winning weeks. You have to stay disciplined and stay the course.
The fact is, we win. Year in and year out. We are now sitting at +60 Units on the year…all documented, bet thresholds, -110 juice included, the full deal. We have four more weeks to go before the real fun begins in the playoffs, but we are going to keep chipping away and see if we can’t have another big one or two to try to get this thing to a 100% return on bankroll. Thursday wasn’t the best start to Week 14, but we are back in the weekend saddle and ready to ride!
For the exotics, we have our now standard 5-team teaser and parlay. For both of those wagers it is going to be : DEN, BUF, MIA, OAK, and ATL. These weekly exotics are up almost 20 Units on the season, so make sure you are cashing in with the 0.5 Unit bet on each.
Exotic Bets this Week
[0.5 Units] 5-Game Parlay: JAX, BUF, MIA, OAK, DEN - LOSS
[0.5 Units] 5-Game Teaser: JAX, WSH, LACH, BAL, HOU - LOSS
[6.6 Units] Denver Broncos (-4.5) at San Francisco - LOSS
6.6 Units – DEN -4.5 or less
3.3 Units – DEN -5
No Action – DEN -5.5 or more
Our models have a 7-point spread in favor of the Broncos for the mean outcome expectancy in this one. In fact, some of our data has this one being as much as an 11-point win by the Broncos. That being said, there is a fair amount of noise in the numbers for both of these teams. Fresh for the Broncos, which has driven this line at time of publishing all the way down to 3, are the injuries to Chris Harris Jr. and Emmanuel Sanders…two important starters on the outside. However, the Broncos still have a strong run game, a far superior defense, and momentum on their side. The Broncos have won 3 in a row, including impressive wins against the Chargers and Steelers. The 49ers on the other hand, are in free-fall mode, losing their last 3, including some very ugly loses against the Bucs and then getting completely overpowered by the Seahawks. The front-7 of the Broncos is really starting to hit it’s stride and that should be enough for the Broncos to cause some chaos on the defensive side of the ball. After a slow start, Bradley Chubb has had 8.5 sacks over the last 7 games and the combo of Von Miller with the rookie is starting to look downright terrifying. We’ll trust the numbers and hope Mullens and maybe Beathard have a very long day.
[6.6 Units] Buffalo Bills (-3) at home with NYJ - LOSS
6.6 Units – BUF -3 or less
3.3 Units – BUF -3.5 or -4
No Action – BUF -4.5 or more
This is the definition of gritty football right here. We have the 4-8 Bills hosting the 3-9 Jets in Buffalo for a game that should be about 26 degrees at kickoff, but maybe more importantly, with winds estimated to be at 10 to 20 mph. Anyone who has played quarterback will tell you, the cold and snow/rain don’t impact the ball that much, what really makes it tough is the wind that typically accompanies those factors. These are the types of games Josh Allen was born to play in. His college ball in Wyoming make the conditions in Buffalo feel like just another day in paradise. More importantly than the howitzer of a right arm and incredible scrambling ability the rookie has shown off in recent weeks, the Bills have a top-3 defense! By our numbers, both of these offenses rank in the bottom-5 in the league, which probably isn’t very shocking to anyone. But the Jets defense that started the year pretty hot has regressed back to slightly below league average. The Bills on the other hand are literally our 3rd ranked defense and should be able to take advantage of the subpar Jets offense at home in the tough conditions. This isn’t a sexy game to watch, but it’s a pure GreenZone play that we’ll gladly back.
[5.5 Units] Miami Dolphins (+7.5) at home with the Patriots - WIN
5,5 Units – MIA +7 or more
2.75 Units – MIA +6.5
No Action – MIA +6 or less
The public is going to be all over the Patriots after they’ve won 8 of their last 9 and are starting to enter the final stretch of the season ‘polishing up for the playoffs’ period. We definitely agree the Patriots will likely win this game on the road in Miami, but we have it as about a 4 to 4.5-point spread. There is a big difference from 4 points to 7 with the hook and these types of plays are why we are able to win 60% year in and year out. We know it’s scary, but we’ve been against the Patriots in spots like this a handful of times this season and come out on top. If you are looking for some historical/trend stats to get yourself comfortable… Tom Brady is 7-9 lifetime playing against the Dolphins in Miami. For a guy that has a career winning percentage of like .800, 7-9 is very low…and 9 road losses is the most for him against any team. Further, the Dolphins, who are 6-6 on the year, are 5-1 at home. We have the numbers in our favor, getting a team who plays much better at home, and a home team who has historically fared much better against it’s opponent in this location than any other team in the league has against the Pats…let’s go.
[5.5 Units] Oakland Raiders (+10.5) at home with Steelers - WIN
5.5 Units – OAK +10 or more
2.75 Units – OAK +9.5
No Action – OAK +9 or less
The Oakland Raiders are not a very complete, or even very good, football team….we aren’t trying to say that they are. However, double-digit spreads in the NFL are not very common…and for good reason. Last week, the Raiders gave up 40 points to the Kansas City Chiefs, who we now have power ranked as our 1a or 1b team. Even with that nonexistent defensive performance, they still scored 33 points and were able to cover as big-time home dogs. The Steelers have been making their way up our rankings as the season has progressed, but they are still more of a top-5ish team than a “best in the league” type squad. Additionally, they seem to like to pick their spots of when to show up. As one may guess, they typically play better in prime-time games against strong opponents, and then sort of go through the motions in games like this that won’t be nationally televised and are against shitter squads. We think the Steelers win, but the models have it as about a 7 to 8-point game and we are comfortable with that value. Another anecdotal caveat to consider is the relationship between the two head coaches. Mike Tomlin served on the Buccaneers staff under Gruden and credits a lot of his approach to his time spent learning from Chucky. It’s not like the Steelers are going to go out and play patty-cake because of this, but there isn’t any desire for Tomlin to embarrass someone he considers a mentor and a friend. 10.5 points is a huge margin for a back-door if need be and it certainly doesn’t hurt that the coach of the better team will likely call the dogs off if it does get a little ugly.
[5.5 Units] Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) at Green Bay - LOSS
5.5 Units – ATL +5.5 or more
2.75 Units – ATL +5
No Action – ATL +4.5 or less
The numbers are backing the Falcons in this one, or we wouldn’t be taking it. But, throwing the numbers out the window for a minute, let’s talk about the state of the Green Bay Packers because there are a couple angles you could go. The first angle is that Mike McCarthy was the problem and he had lost the locker room. The Packers will play harder this weekend to try to prove that it was the coaching staff and not the on-field talent/execution. That sounds like a good narrative until you really take a look under the hood. McCarthy came back to the Packers’ facilities twice this week after he was fired. Once on Tuesday to talk to the coaching staff…all of which he brought in and are speaking his praises in the media, mind you. And another time on Wednesday to address all of the players…who then gave him a standing ovation and are largely saying his praises in the media. That is, except for one man….Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers and McCarthy had been together for Rodgers entire career and there’s been offensive coordinators who have come and gone, but the fact is, it was basically the two of those men shaping the offense. Clearly there was a souring of that relationship and it appears as if Rodgers basically threw a fit long enough to get McCarthy ran out of town. What does that get them this week? It gets Joe Philbin as the interim head coach and the playcaller. Despite Philbin being the offensive coordinator for two different stints in Green Bay, he has never called plays in an NFL game. In fact, the last time he called plays was over 20 years ago at Northeastern University. The Packers are not very good this year which is the real reason for the frustration and canning of McCarthy. To think that Philbin is suddenly going to jumpstart the squad seems like a long-stretch in our opinion and definitely not a reason to kick a game that has value otherwise. We’ll back the numbers and hope the Pack doesn’t get a motivational bump that somehow makes them outperform their season-to-date levels of play.