NFL Week 13 Pick Recap
The GreenZone had a MONSTER week going 5-1. We lost our parlay and teaser at the hands of Mark "Dirty" Sanchez. Straight Bets are up 42.95 Units on the year, and exotics are up 16.85 Units! Bringing our season cumulative total to +59.8 Units.
The Yellow and RedZone were down as they finished 4-6, the system overall had a great weekend going 9-7 straight up. Below is a breakdown of the entire Zone performances, along with Bankroll return based on our recommended unit sizing of each GreenZone game and exotic wagers. For the record we only recommend and count towards our units the GreenZone games.
Our published write-up and picks for Week 13 is below:
We are entering the homestretch of the regular season, with 5 weeks to play before we get on our annual playoff and Super Bowl heater. We are still in great shape at this point in the year at our +40 Units, but we think we have one more good run in us to get our season win percentage back in line with what our historically observed levels are. There are six true GreenZone games this week and we have a little bit of everything (home/away, faves/dogs). Bye weeks are done and we are through Thanksgiving, so we get a nice little 4-week period of no goofy scheduling impacts. This helps smooth out the noise in the data and we usually go on a nice run with a full 16 games to narrow it down from. Let’s have a big lucky number 13 week!
For the exotics, we are back to just the standard 5-team teaser and parlay. For both of those wagers it is going to be : BAL, WSH, JAX, LACH, and HOU. These weekly exotics are up almost 20 Units on the season, so make sure you are cashing in with the 0.5 Unit bet on each.
Exotic Bets this Week
[0.5 Units] 5-Game Parlay: JAX, WSH, LACH, BAL, HOU - LOSS
[0.5 Units] 5-Game Teaser: JAX, WSH, LACH, BAL, HOU - LOSS
[6.6 Units] Baltimore Ravens (+1) at Atlanta - WIN
6.6 Units – BAL -1 or less
3.3 Units – BAL -1.5 to -2.5
No Action – BAL -3 or more
This probably won’t be a major surprise, but we have the Atlanta Falcons, with their 4-7 record, as a below league average team. On the other hand, Baltimore is in our top-10 and their true value is even a little better than their 6-5 record would lead you to believe. Baltimore has a top-5ish defense and special teams, while Atlanta is the worst defense in the league, per our metrics. Atlanta does have a slight edge offensively, but the other phases of the game have this one firmly in the Ravens favor. We see this game as Baltimore -3, so for them to be getting a point or two is absolutely a MUST jam. Lamar Jackson has performed efficiently the last two weeks in wins against sub-par defenses, we are very interested to see what he can do against this atrocious Atlanta D in the town where Mike Vick paved the way for his style of play. This should be a fun game to watch and we have the Ravens running to an easy cover.
[6.6 Units] Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) at home with 49ers - WIN
6.6 Units – SEA -9.5 or less
3.3 Units – SEA -10
No Action – SEA -10.5 or more
These are two teams that are heading in opposite directions down the homestretch of the season. The Seahawks are very close to full strength (outside of Earl Thomas) after being extremely banged up during the first half of the season. Their on-field performance has reflected the increased availability of key players, winning their last 2 games and playing the Rams very tough on the road the week before that. They have cracked our top-10 and are as balanced of a team as exists from offense to defense to special teams. The 49ers on the other hand are precipitously falling down our board and now have a bottom-3 offense and bottom-5 special teams. They got absolutely smoked last week by a pretty bad Buccaneers team and didn’t have any signs of life on offense against a very bad Tampa defense. Additionally, the home crowd in Tampa is basically just empty seats, so going into Seattle against a team that is now very much alive in the playoff race and finishes the year with 4 home games out of 5 weeks is not the recipe the 9ers needed to get back on track. We see this Seahawks defense absolutely dismantling the 49ers offense that will be without both starting WRs, Garcon and Goodwin. Hawks roll and so do those units right into our bankroll.
[6.6 Units] Washington Redskins (+6.5) at Philadelphia - LOSS
6.6 Units – WAS +3.5 or more
3.3 Units – WAS +3
No Action – WAS +2.5 or less
This is a 3-point spread game all the way. Games like this are actually what gave us the idea for the first version of our proprietary system. We have two teams that are very similar in what would be considered an even matchup on a neutral field…throw in home field advantage (which is very real)…and you get a 3-point spread. How is this 6.5?? The Redskins have a better defense, far better special teams, and a very slightly less efficient offense. Common sense, and our numbers, say this is a 3-point game. The public is still giving the 5-6 Eagles more credit than they deserve because of last year’s Super Bowl win. This is a squad that just snuck by the shitty Giants on a late field goal last week and they are spotting a touchdown against a Redskins team that should have just covered that on the road on a short week against a good Dallas team. What’s more, Colt McCoy didn’t even get a real practice before his start last week in Dallas since it was on Thursday. They now have had a mini-bye week and plenty of time to prepare and retool their offense that was already pretty dink and dunky. We have confidence this will be a close game and about a field goal one way or the other.
[5.5 Units] Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) at home with the Colts - WIN
5.5 Units – JAX +3 or more
2.75 Units – JAX +2.5
No Action – JAX +2 or less
The value on this game very well could be a result of the benching of Blake Bortles. Our reaction is: who cares? The Jaguars are still about a league average team but it’s in spite of what Blake has done as a part of that offense. The Jaguars still have a top-10 defense and are top-5 in special teams, which drives their evaluation up. Their worst-5 in the league offense hasn’t done anything to help them in our rankings. If Kessler can just manage the game and make sure drives end with kicking plays, they should be just fine at home. The Colts have a winning record, but we have them pretty evenly matched with Jacksonville. This game should be about a pick ‘em, so to have the 4 free points at home is a gift in our opinion. This Jacksonville D is going to be rejuvenated and flying around now that Blake has been benched. It was widely reported and obvious to the eye that they were sick of playing with him out there sabotaging their efforts. Even if Kessler doesn’t provide a true performance lift, they will at least get an emotional one. This is a pros pro pick and you gotta trust the numbers like we do.
[5.5 Units] Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) at Pittsburgh - WIN
5.5 Units – Chargers +3.5 or more
2.75 Units – Chargers +3
No Action – Chargers +2.5 or less
Our models have this game as anywhere from a pick ‘em to -3 in favor of the Steelers. Both teams are very solid and are around our top-5 in the league…this should be a very competitive game against two playoff teams. That being said, we have the Chargers as a better team on both offense and defense. The loss of Gordon at RB and a West Coast team coming East are both small areas of concern, but we are getting the hook! In a game that the Chargers could easily win given our pick ‘em model outputs, getting 3.5 points is a GreenZone for us. We still like it at +3, but we’d back off the bet size if we were forced to get in at that level.
[5.5 Units] Houston Texans (-5.5) at home with the Browns - WIN
5.5 Units – HOU -6 or less
2.75 Units – HOU -6.5
No Action – HOU -7 or more
Both of these teams are feeling themselves coming into the Week 13 matchup. The Browns have ripped off two straight wins and there is growing confidence that the play-calling is different now that Hue Jackson is gone. Not to dump cold water on the party, but the Browns played the 32nd defense in the league (Atlanta) two weeks ago, and the Bengals, who are in free-fall mode on the defensive side, last week. Traveling to a very loud NRG Stadium in Houston to go against a white-hot Texans team who has racked up 8 straight consecutive wins is going to be a very different story. Houston has a top-5 defense and when they get the indoor crowd noise behind them they can cause chaos for opposing offenses. Our models have this as a 7 to 9-point game and we don’t see any reason not to trust them.