NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football - Redskins vs. Eagles Prediction

[6.6 Units] Washington Redskins (+6.5) at Philadelphia

6.6 Units – WAS +3.5 or more

3.3 Units – WAS +3

No Action – WAS +2.5 or less

Yesterday was the kind of day that make our seasons so profitable over the course of the year.  There are a lot of 3-2, 4-3, slightly profitable weeks, but what racks up the big earnings are the handful of huge weekends each year.  We had 6 total GreenZone plays that went out to subscribers on Saturday and of the 5 games we had on Sunday we went, you guessed it, 5 and 0!  Those five wins were good for +27 units!!  A single day 27% return on your bankroll is big time.  We also still have our 5-team parlay and 5-team teaser alive with only the Redskins play tonight still remaining.  If you had our 5-teamers you are left with a teaser paying 4.5 to 1 and a parlay paying somewhere in the 26 to 28 to 1 range (depends on the juice in each game when you placed it).  So, without making an outright bet on tonight's game you could be up another 15+ units tonight if all goes according to plan (note: bet size recommendation was for 0.5 units on each).

The decision on hedging vs. letting it ride is a very personal one and depends on your risk tolerance as well as what your confidence levels are on the last remaining leg.  As you will see in the write-up below (excerpted from this weekend's publication), we feel this is a wheelhouse GreenZone game.  For our internal bank-roll management we are effectively hedging out the risk of our original straight wager on the Redskins.  So, we have 0.5 units on the parlay and teaser each, plus a 6.6 unit "to-risk" play on the Redskins already placed.  If all of those hit we will get approximately +21 Units (15 on exotics + 6 on regular bet).  We are in essence risking 7.6 units for a 21 unit payoff.  For that reason, we are going to hedge out about 7 units, leaving us with basically 0 risk with an upside of 14 units.  A free bet for that upside is as Green as Green gets...

(editors note: all published season performance will reflect un-hedged bets as originally stated in write-ups)

This is a 3-point spread game all the way.  Games like this are actually what gave us the idea for the first version of our proprietary system.  We have two teams that are very similar in what would be considered an even matchup on a neutral field…throw in home field advantage (which is very real)…and you get a 3-point spread.  How is this 6.5??  The Redskins have a better defense, far better special teams, and a very slightly less efficient offense.  Common sense, and our numbers, say this is a 3-point game.  The public is still giving the 5-6 Eagles more credit than they deserve because of last year’s Super Bowl win.  This is a squad that just snuck by the shitty Giants on a late field goal last week and they are spotting a touchdown against a Redskins team that should have just covered that on the road on a short week against a good Dallas team.  What’s more, Colt McCoy didn’t even get a real practice before his start last week in Dallas since it was on Thursday.  They now have had a mini-bye week and plenty of time to prepare and retool their offense that was already pretty dink and dunky.  We have confidence this will be a close game and about a field goal one way or the other.