NFL Week 11 Pick Recap
Each week we'll be providing our pick recap to validate our performance and give everyone an in depth view of what our subscribers receive. Let's have a look at the selections below from week 11.
The GreenZone continued it's hot streak this weekend going an incredible 5-0! We also hit our 4 team Parlay and Teaser!! Our first 5-0 brought us our third parlay of the year, and our fourth teaser! With that those exotic plays are guaranteed to be profitable for the 2018 regular season! Straight Bets are up 43.45 Units on the year, and exotics are up 18.55 Units! Bringing our season cumulative total to +62 Units.
The Yellow and RedZone were down as they finished 2-6, the system overall had a good weekend going 7-6 straight up. Below is a breakdown of the entire Zone performances, along with Bankroll return based on our recommended unit sizing of each GreenZone game and exotic wagers. For the record we only recommend and count towards our units the GreenZone games.
Our published write-up and picks for Week 11 is below:
We have a relatively light slate this week, with only a total of 5 GreenZone games. However, we are not light on value in those games and feel very good about having a strong weekend/Monday Night. As things worked out, we get all three Week 11 primetime games in the Green. What is also nice is we don’t have any games where we are backing a bottom-10 team and hoping to not get beat by double digits to cover with a bunch of points. Every once in a while it’s nice to be on some favorites or teams that are very good and short dogs, like the Chiefs. It’s middle of the year, stay disciplined, keep grinding and wait for the big weekends to pop, time. Feels very 4-0 the rest of the weekend from here to us…let’s get that money.
For the exotics this week we only have 4-team parlays and teasers. We were waiting on Thursday to see some injury reports and decide whether to kick a couple games or not, so we didn’t want to rush to include Seattle. It ended up at -3 late in the day for Seattle anyway, so that would have been a push in the parlay. That being said, KC, CHI, NYG, and WSH for both a 4-team parlay and 4-team teaser. We outlined the analysis on our site over the off-season and it has proved to be fruitful for us this year. It came to our attention last weekend that some subscribers had not been reading the intro to the write-ups and seeing these exotics, so hopefully you are all riding this the rest of the way with us.
[0.5 Units] 6PT TEASER - CHI, WAS, KC, NYG - WIN
[0.5 Units] PARLAY - CHI, WAS, KC, NYG - WIN
[6.6 Units] Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams - WIN
6.6 Units – KC +3 or more
3.3 Units – KC +2.5
No Action – KC +2 or less
The classic, mid-week, change the location of an NFL game impacted about 90k fans, but we don’t expect it to have that much impact on the Chiefs offense. They still have the #1 offense in the league and according to our measurables, the #2 Rams offense isn’t even really that close. Three and the hook in this game is a lot considering it’s basically impossible to stop the Chiefs from scoring. Our models objectively see this game as a pick ‘em to a 1-point win for the Rams which creates a considerable amount of value for this one to be in the GreenZone. The Chiefs defense is still not anywhere close to the level of the Rams, but they have been gradually improving as the season has progressed. The fact that they’ve improved, combined with no Kupp for the Rams, should mean just enough stops by the Chiefs defense to keep this under a field goal. The Rams front-4 is the best in football, but the back-7 are leaving a lot to be desired, specially during the last couple of games. The Chiefs will come out with an up-tempo, quick trigger, get the ball in space against these shitty LBs and DBs game plan that will likely make the Rams front-4 a moot point for large periods of the game. We like the system value, we like the matchup, we maybe even like a dusting of some KC money line action…we’ll end the week on a high note with the Chiefs cover Monday night.
[6.6 Units] Chicago Bears (-2.5) at home with Vikings - WIN
6.6 Units – CHI -2.5
3.3 Units – CHI -3
No Action – CHI -3.5 or more
The Chicago Bears have the number one defense in the league and a top-10 offense. It seems wild after the last five years or so, but the Bears are flat out a better team than the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota still boasts a top-10 defense, but it’s more in the 7-10 range than it is 1-3 like it has been in the recent past. Additionally, their offense is league average and likely not as good in weather as the run heavy attack with multiple athletes like Nagy has dialed up for the Bears. We see this game as a 3 to 7-point win in favor of the home team, so for it only to be -2.5, we have to take it. We get ANOTHER primetime GreenZone game, with Thursday Night Football, SNF, and MNF all firm plays. We don’t ever care if it’s a 1 o’clock or primetime, but it is nice to have a good “entertainment” week. We mention that because you know what else that means…MAX effort Khalil Mack. It’s hard to have significant data on it, but our eyes certainly tell us that Mack turns up the effort to freakish levels when the big lights are on. This Minnesota offensive line is going to have their hands full all night and it should be more than enough for the Bears to get the W and cover.
[6.6 Units] New York Giants (-1.5) at home with Buccaneers - WIN
6.6 Units – NYG -2.5
3.3 Units – NYG -3
No Action – NYG -3.5 or more
This one falls into the “check the score in the 4th quarter and hope you don’t have to watch any of the game” category. The 2-7 Giants and 3-6 Bucs aren’t playing for any 2018 playoff aspirations at this point. In fact, the argument could be made that they are both better off tanking for the rest of the year. However, there are a lot of contracts and jobs in play and we think there will still be true effort out of both sides. Both sides have plenty of offensive firepower with a full complement of skill guys. The issues for both teams are similarly consistent, bad offensive line play, inconsistent QB decision making, and subpar defenses. The reason our models are siding with the home team Giants are better defense and special teams. That is not to say that the Giants are profecient in either of those areas, more just a reflection of how horrible TB is in those facets of the game. Tampa’s performance last week against the Redskins (winner for us) was a perfect display of how they are able to piss away games while still having pretty good offensive output. We will trust our numbers here and hop Saquan and OBJ get a lot of touches in space to get the ball out of Eli’s hands as quickly and often as possible!
[5.5 Units] Washington Redskins (+3) at home with Texans - WIN
5.5 Units – WSH +1 or more
2.75 Units – WSH pick ‘em
No Action – WSH -1 or more
This is the number one value game as ranked by our models this week. “So, why is it the last pick and the smallest unit amount of the week?”, you ask. Despite our models having this game as a 1 to 3-point win for the Redskins, there are some things that aren’t quite quantifiable that need to be considered. The main one is the absolute decimation to the offensive line for the Washington Redskins. This was something that was an issue last week as well, but because to the relative garbage level of the Bucs defense we were still comfortable backing the Skins. This week, a little more of that back-up offensive linemen impact has been baked into the data and those back-ups have had another week of practice together to start to gel a little bit more. The concern, however, is they are not facing the Bucs defense. This Houston team has picked up momentum over the last several weeks and are starting to look like the team a lot of people expected at the beginning of the year. Getting 3 points for a home team in some weather against a warm weather dome team coming east is still enough juice for us to pull the trigger here. The Redskins defense will be the difference maker in this one…if they show up, we’ll be fine. If they have a game like they did against the Falcons or Saints, and we will be in trouble. This is a trust one for us, do you trust??