NFL Week 10 Winners

NFL Betting positive expected value insights for week 10 games against the spread and odds based on the las vegas super contest

[6.6 Units] Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at home against Cincinnati Bengals
6.6 Units – PIT -8.5 or less 
3.3 Units – PIT -9 to -9.5
No Action – PIT -10 or more

The only undefeated team in the League has an advantage in every aspect of the game against the struggling Bengals... the models see this as closer to a two touchdown spread.

 

[6.6 Units] Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at home against LA Chargers
6.6 Units – MIA -3 or less 
3.3 Units – MIA -3.5 or -4 
No Action – MIA -4.5 or more

The 5-3 Dolphins aren't getting a lot of cred at this point, but they have a very realistic possibility to make the playoffs.  They are the better team at home against a Chargers squad on long travel who has displayed the same affinity for blowing games in 2020 as they have the last couple years.

 

[6.6 Units] Cleveland Browns (-3) at home against Houston Texans
6.6 Units – CLE -3 or less 
3.3 Units – CLE -3.5 or -4
No Action – CLE -4.5 or more

Cleveland at home is well rested after a perfectly timed bye week.  They had Baker in the Covid protocol during the off week, but it didn't impact preparation for this Week 10 matchup.  More importantly, they return a healthy Nick Chubb this week which should mean a return to the best-in-the-league run game they displayed before he went out.  The Texans will be able to put up some points, but the Browns are going to have their way on the ground and will control the game for the cover.

 

[6.6 Units] Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at New York Giants
6.6 Units – PHI -4 or less 
3.3 Units – PHI -4.5 to -5.5 
No Action – PHI -6 or more

This is a comically "big" matchup during the disastrous 2020 season for the NFL East.  The Eagles have control of the division as the only team with 3 wins + don't forget about that tie, baby!  If they can get to 4-4-1 they could mathematically lose every game the rest of the year and still win the division...outrageous.  Philly has the best unit in the division, with a defensive side who has played very well despite being put in terrible situations by the offense.  They got rested up last week and will lean on that defense to maul a very bad Giants O.

 

[6.6 Units] Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) at Carolina Panthers
6.6 Units – TB -6 or less
3.3 Units – TB -6.5
No Action – TB -7 or more

The Bucs got embarrassed last week...period.  The model likes them as over a touchdown favorites and you'd have to be crazy to go against the model when we also get legendary revenge Tom Brady mode.  The guy refuses to lose two games in a row and will look to make it ugly if possible.


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