NFL Week 10 Recap

 Each week we'll be providing our pick recap to validate our performance and give everyone an in depth view of what our subscribers receive. Let's have a look at the selections below from week 10. 

The GreenZone continued it's hot streak this weekend going 4-4. We missed our parlay and teaser this week. This equated to an overall return of -3.1 Units for straight bets, and -1 for exotics. Straight Bets are up 14.45 Units on the year, and exotics are up 11.25 Units! Bringing our season cumulative total to +25.7 Units.

The Yellow and RedZone were solid as they finished 3-2-1, the system overall had a good weekend going 7-6-1 straight up. Below is a breakdown of the entire Zone performances, along with Bankroll return based on our recommended unit sizing of each GreenZone game and exotic wagers. For the record we only recommend and count towards our units the GreenZone games. 

Our write-up and picks for Week 10 is below:

We are back on solid footing through the first 9 weeks, with the cumulative bankroll now up almost 30% on the season.  The public has had a historically good two-week run against the books and that is causing some silly spreads this week.  Favorites have been rolling and that is why we are seeing some touchdown + spreads against teams that aren’t anywhere near the bottom of the league.  The Titans, Seahawks and Dolphins are all getting a touchdown or more.  Regardless of your fandom, none of those three teams is a bottom-5 type squad that necessitates those type of dog status.  We don’t hunch on dawgs or faves, home or away, etc.  We simply objectively analyze the data, as we do each week, and then see where the numbers take us.  It’s pretty clear Vegas is loading up taking positions on the underdogs and we are right there with them.  The public/faves are due for a blasting, so if you think you are a genius this week and are going to pick random games, good luck!  We will keep it steady as usual and look to capitalize on the market dislocation that has occurred.

For the exotics this week we have TEN, SEA, WAS, CIN, MIA for both a 5-team parlay and 5-team teaser.  We outlined the analysis on our site over the off-season and it has proved to be fruitful for us this year.  That is 0.5 units on each and it’s already paid for itself even if we somehow wouldn’t hit another one for the entire season, but that’s definitely not going to happen because we are going 7-1 this week!! (let’s run that back and give ‘er another go) 

 

[6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (+6.5) home with Patriots - WIN

6.6 Units – TEN +6 or more

3.3 Units – TEN +4.5 to +5.5

No Action – TEN +4 or less

The Patriots are hot right now, no doubt about that one.  They had an emotional win in Week 9 where they game planned and schemed their asses off.  It was pretty clear they prepared for multiple weeks for the Packers when McCourty was telling reporters they were working on plastering to receivers when QBs scramble the week of the Bills game.  They weren’t doing that to get ready to face Derek Anderson, it was classic Belichick.  The knew they’d waltz past the Bills, so they kept it very vanilla and got ready to face the Pack.  Well, they didn’t pay that same sort of attention to this Titans matchup and the Titans have been pesky for us all year.  They aren’t sexy, but they play physical defense, bend but don’t break, and outperform their opponents with special teams units that are strong across the board.  Our models have the Titans as 3-point underdogs and that’s really where we see this game shaking out.  The Patriots will get another road victory, but they aren’t going to blow the doors off this Titans D.  Also, don’t discount Mike Vrabel knowing this New England defense…and offense…inside and out in the first match up of the long-time Pat as a head coach against his former coach and QB.

 

[6.6 Units] Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) at Los Angeles Rams  - WIN

6.6 Units – SEA +8.5 or more

3.3 Units – SEA +7 to +8

No Action – SEA +6.5 or less

The Seahawks are coming off a rare home loss against a Chargers squad that is picking up steam and could ultimately compete with the Patriots and Chiefs for the AFC Championship.  Despite their 4-4 record, we still have the Seahawks as a top-10 team, per our proprietary valuation systems.  The Rams are a very a good team, there isn’t any debating that fact.  However, they are not without weaknesses and ways to be attacked, and that was on display last week in New Orleans.  The Saints offense is obviously firing on all cylinders, but they got a lot more stops than we would have anticipated.  This Seahawks defense is a LOT better than that of the Saints and given that recent film, we expect them to give the Rams some fits on Sunday.  Our models have this as a 5 to 6-point game, which is more than enough value to have them in our 60% win expectancy threshold.  There aren’t any major caveats for us to think otherwise, and in a lot of ways the argument can be made that the Seahawks are starting to put things together while the Rams may be hitting a little bit of a dog days of summer type lull after running through the league the first 8 weeks and still having a ways to go before the playoffs are here.  The Rams will bounce back with a home win, but they aren’t going to run up and down the field against this, as healthy as its been all year, Seattle defense.

 

[5.5 Units] Washington Redskins (+3) at Tampa - WIN

5.5 Units – WAS +3 or more

2.75 Units – WAS +2.5

No Action – WAS +2 or less

Our models have this as game as a pick ‘em.  Both of these teams have come back to reality after some very hot starts to the year.  As one would think, they have both slid down our models rankings when looked at on a collective basis.  The Bucs offense early in the season wasn’t sustainable, but what’s hurt them the most is their AWFUL defense.  They are the worst defense in the league by our measures, and it isn’t even close.  This Redskins offense isn’t the greatest show on turf by any stretch, but they should be able to effectively move the ball against this horrible Bucs D.  There is some concern with multiple back up offensive linemen for the ‘Skins, but we are comfortable staying with them because the front-7 for the Bucs can’t stop anything…run or pass.  On the flip side, the Redskins defense is actually pretty solid.  They have been lit up a couple times this year, but it was by the red-hot Falcons offense (more on them later) and Drew Brees during his parade to becoming the all-time leading passer.  Outside of those two games, they have shut people down.  Let’s get one thing straight, this Tampa offense is not on par with either of those two just mentioned.  The Bucs offense can make some plays, but they are also very turnover prone, and that’s what this Redskins defense, and secondary in particular, feed on.  Getting a field goal in this one is a no-brainer for us and the numbers agree.

 

 [5.5 Units] Cincinnati Bengals (+5) at home with Saints - LOSS

5.5 Units – CIN +4 or more

2.75 Units – CIN +3.5

No Action – CIN -3 or less

Who is going against the Saints after that big-time win against the undefeated Rams??  That’s right…if you’re scared, go to church.  Our models see this as about a 1.5 to 3-point game and a lot of that has to do with the match up of the Bengals offense vs. the Saints defense.  We still have the Saints defense as a bottom-5 in the league performer and without the noise of the home crowd in the dome, they are even worse.  It is 28 degrees in Cincinnati at time of writing and is expected to be right around freezing tomorrow at kickoff.  If you don’t think that has an impact on the Saints offense, you haven’t watched football for the last ten years.  It’s always scary when you have a QB mismatch, which we definitely have backing the Red Rifle vs. Brees, but when looking at these two teams in aggregate, the value is there on the Bengals.  The cold weather, Bengals coming off a bye, and the emotional “we are the best in the NFC” win by the Saints all are intangibles in our favor.  

 

[5.5 Units] Miami Dolphins (+9.5) at Green Bay - LOSS

5.5 Units – MIA +9.5 or more

2.75 Units – MIA +7.5 to +9

No Action – MIA +7 or less

“Gentlemen, we’ll be successful this year if you can focus on three things, and three things only. Your family, your religion and the Miami Dolphins”.  Ok, maybe we got that famous Vince Lombardi quote a little wrong, but it certainly applies to the 2018 ProMathletics team. We’ve been on the Phins 8 of 9 weeks so far this season, and we’re making it 9 of 10 this week.  The good news for those non-Prolievers out there, is that they have a bye next week, so we won’t be on them. However, they covered again last week and are getting WAY too many points in Green Bay on Sunday. It can be scary going against Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau, but this Packers team isn’t what it once was.  Rodgers is clearly still in a lot of pain from a week 1 knee injury and there are now grumblings that he is frustrated with McCarthy’s offense.  He still has a 15/1 TD/INT ratio, but their offense is now more of a top-10 than top-5.  This is important, because the defense continues to underperform, ranking 24th in overall defensive efficiency. Injuries to Blake Martinez and Kevin King will certainly not help that situation. If you’ve been following us for any time whatsoever, you already know most of our thoughts on the Dolphins. They are a LEAGUE AVERAGE team. Their offense is almost exactly league average. Their defense is slightly below average. One thing that we haven’t discussed is their special teams play. This should be one of our classic hidden yard battles.  Miami has a top tier special teams’ unit.  They are among the best in KRs, PRs, and Punts. While the Packers are near the bottom in all those categories.  Obviously, the Packers are a better overall team, but this is more of a 10 vs. Avg team battle, which means this line should be closer to 6 than 9.5 or hopefully 10 by week’s end. Take the Dolphins and eek out another cover.

 

[5.5 Units] Atlanta Falcons (-4) at Cleveland - LOSS

5.5 Units – ATL -4.5 or less

2.75 Units – ATL -5 to -6.5

No Action – ATL -7 or more

There isn’t much to say on this one.  The numbers like it, the Browns are in free-fall mode, and the Falcons are starting to light up defenses like they do every year.  The defensive sides still favor the Browns, but the offensive output of the Falcons has them back in the top-5 in the league rankings and they will get enough points on the board to run away from this Browns squad.

 

[3 Units] Chicago Bears (-6.5) at home with the Lions - WIN

3 Units – CHI -6.5 or less

1.5 Units – CHI -7

No Action – CHI -7.5 or more

We demoted this one a bit due to conflicting output among our multifaceted analysis.  Our range of expected score differential is from 4.5 to 12, all in favor of the Bears.  That is a much larger deviation than we typically have and has given us some caution when approaching this game.  We think it is a nice match up in favor of the Bears at home in the cold before these two teams meet again in two weeks on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit.  But with that being said, the split personality Lions are being reflected in our modeling with some scenarios where they keep it tight.

[0.5 Units] 6PT TEASER - TEN, SEA, WAS, CIN, MIA - LOSS

[0.5 Units] PARLAY - TEN, SEA, WAS, CIN, MIA - LOSS