NFL Week 10 - Pick Recap
The team had another positive weekend going 3-2-1. This gives us 6 of 10 weekends on the year in which we have produced a positive return. It's almost funny how we always find a way to 60% in all that we do. The Titans continue to bone us, we can't live with them, can't live without them. How the Chiefs melted down to close the game out is beyond us. The system is full throttle and the data is fully cooked, we can feel a 5-0 and parlay coming as we are well over due! Stay the course and let's stack it from here to the New Year!
We only recommend and track the units of the GreenZone games as highlighted below. The full write up that is sent to our subscribers is below as well.
[6.6 Units] Indianapolis Colts (-10) at home with Dolphins - Loss
6.6 Units – IND -12 or less
3.3 Units – IND -12.5 to 13.5
No Action – IND -14 or more
The Dolphins got one in the win column, but that doesn’t stop our models from seeing this matchup as a 17-point game. Brissett practiced Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, but will still be a game time decision on Sunday. This line is hovering around the 11-point mark right now and we recommend taking it before it becomes official that he’s playing. If he doesn’t play, no worries, because we still like it even with Hoyer behind center. The Dolphins are our worst defense, worst offense, and in our bottom-5 special teams…in summation, NOT good. The Colts, despite cooperating with us for the cover last week, are an above average and pretty complete team. We are expecting a big day for Marlon Mack and this Colts offensive line. The Dolphins are allowing 150ypg on the ground and rarely get pressure on opposing QBs. The Colts have played very well at home this year and there isn’t anything in the data that suggests they won’t come out and take care of business for us tomorrow afternoon.
[6.6 Units] Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at home with the Rams - WIN SU
6.6 Units – PIT +3 or more
3.3 Units – PIT +2.5
No Action – PIT +2 or less
Don’t, for a second, think it’s lost on the Pittsburgh Steelers how big this game is. Just three weeks ago, the Steel boys were sitting at 1-4, looking like a complete debacle. Now they have ripped off 3 straight wins (4-4) and are playing at home for the third consecutive week. Additionally, they play the Browns (x2), Bengals, and Cardinals their next 4 games, so a win this weekend could set them up to get to 9-4 with an absolute heater. We aren’t saying this because we are wishing it will happen…our staff disagrees on a lot, but are united with our dislike for the Black and Yellow. We are saying this because the data loves that they are getting disrespected at home with a hook just because the Rams are coming off a bye. The defenses for both of these teams are really good…both are in our top-5. When a top-5 defense is getting over a field goal at home, the alarm bells go off in Value City. As long as this Steelers offensive line, who ranks #1 in sacks allowed, protects Rudolph from Aaron Donald, we should have a very close game on our hands.
[6.6 Units] Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals - WIN
6.6 Units – BAL -11.5 or less
3.3 Units – BAL -12
No Action – BAL -12.5 or more
What a performance by the Ravens against the Patriots last Sunday Night. The commitment by Baltimore’s front office to retool the team and mold it to take advantage of Lamar’s strengths was on full display against the previously unbeaten Patriots. I don’t want to say it, but Jackson looks Vick-like in his 2nd year. We have Cincinnati as our 2nd to worst defense, ahead of only Miami, so there isn’t much in our modeling that foresees them getting a lot of stops. If the Ravens offense can carry over the momentum from last week, they could put on an absolute display in Cincy on Sunday. On the flip side, the Bengals are still without AJ Green and are now inserting rookie, Ryan Finley, in at quarterback. Last year, we saw the Ravens defense improve throughout the middle part of the season to end the year as playing at maybe the highest peak level in the league. They have been starting to get it together and make more plays the last several games, so we fully expect them to continue that trend and take advantage of some first start jitters from Finley.
[6.6 Units] Buffalo Bills (+3) at Cleveland - Push
6.6 Units – BUF +3 or more
3.3 Units – BUF +2.5
No Action – BUF +2 or less
Our models have this game as a pick ‘em which is kind of surprising given the inverse records of 6-2 and 2-6. The Bills data is much worse than a typical 6-2 team, while the Browns have shown flashes of brilliance outside of the overwhelmingly mistake-laden brand of football they have played for most of the year. The popular narrative is that the Browns are going to take advantage of the Bills rush defense…which is a great game plan. Only problem with that is Freddie Kitchens has rolled out pretty much the exact opposite of great game plans in 2019 and there is mounting pressure within the building to “get Beckham enough touches”. Whenever there are more headlines about getting a WR enough touches than there are about the team getting sorted things out, it’s usually not a great indicator of the overall locker room sentiment and the direction of the team as a whole. This should be a tightly contested game with a couple of feast or famine 2nd year QBs on each sideline, so we are going to trust our models and take the three points with a team who has found ways to win in 2019.
[6.6 Units] Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Tennessee - LOSS
6.6 Units – KC -5 or less
3.3 Units – KC -5.5 or 6
No Action – KC -6.5 or more
We’ve had big line movements against us on some of these plays vs. the SuperContest…last week for example, the public ended up getting many more points with the K.C. play than what we had published….all good…it all hit. This week, for the first meaningful time all year, we have a line movement in favor of our play that makes the market line not quite as juicy. That being said, we have KC winning by almost 8-points in a lot of our scenarios. This will be the first time the Chiefs have been at full strength on offense since the start of Week 1. The Titans, as we tend to preach from time to time, are a very solid, middle of the pack team. The only problem is they are coming up against a team with the most fire power in the league who hasn’t really been able to put it on full display in a while. With Matt Moore pulling the trigger last week, the Chiefs made the very good Vikings defense look silly. The return of Mahomes is undoubtedly going to result in an even better on-field product and we don’t project the Titans being able to score enough to keep this one within striking distance.