NFL Week 10 - Panthers at Steelers Prediction
[6.6 Units] Carolina Panthers (+4) at Pittsburgh
6.6 Units – CAR +3.5 or more
3.3 Units – CAR +3
No Action – CAR +2.5 or less
We are pumped we get the opportunity to be back in the GreenZone so quickly after our Monday Night Football win with the Titans as outright winners in Dallas. That victory was the cherry on top to our 4-1 Week 9 performance that netted us +16.5 units...getting us up to +30 units on the season. With an assumed 1-unit bet of $100, a season-long subscriber would be up ~$3,000 (including -110 juice) if they maintained discipline and took each one of our predictions. Check out our Week 9 recap for the full details of the week and season-to-date performance. On to the pick...
The Carolina Panthers are a team our models have loved much more than the public has this year. We've said it a couple times, but for whatever reason, they aren't getting a ton of respect by the betting public or a lot of air time from the media. That is fine with us, because we have enjoyed every time we've cashed with them. Last week's performance did not do anything to dissuade our opinion and in fact, moved them up in our ranking systems. The simple fact of the matter is they are a better team than the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are a better offense, defense, and have better special teams units on a aggregated basis. Even on the road at Heinz, we see this as a Panthers -0.5 to +1.5 projected line. That's right, based on one of our or projection methodologies we have the Panthers as outright winners.
In what should be a cleanly played, physical, game between two likely playoff squads, getting 4, or even 3.5 points, is a lot. This is no doubt a 60% chance winner per our long-run GreenZone historical probability. There aren't really a lot of caveats to even consider adjusting the numbers... Both teams have picked up their performance as the season has progressed and are very healthy when looked at vs. the league average number of injured starters and key depth players. Both teams have top-10 offenses with giant quarterbacks who can be big-time playmakers and then frustrating at times. The keys for our ultimate outputs really rest on the defensive side of the ball and the hidden yards of special teams plays. The Panthers are very strong in both of these areas, whereas the Steelers rank in the bottom-third of our rankings. Those subtle differences will be enough to swing this one into the victory column for ProMathletics and get us off to a strong Week 10 start.