NFL Pick Recap - Conference Championship
Each week we'll be providing our pick recap to validate our performance and give everyone an in depth view of what our subscribers receive.
We had the Patriots +3, Saints -3, and the KC/NE Over this past weekend.
We added +4.7 Units this weekend! The missed call in the Saints game cost us 3.3 Units and allowed Rams bakers the break they needed. The Pats game saw the breaks go our way and we cashed that HARD. DO NOT miss our Super Bowl pick and always spicy Prop Bet plays!
For the record we only recommend and count towards our units the GreenZone games. Red and Yellow are purely for conversation purposes and used in larger formats where all games are needed.
Below is our write up sent to our Subscribers:
[6.6 Units] New England Patriots (+3) at Kansas City
6.6 Units – NE +3 or more
No Action – NE +2.5 or less
[2.2 Units] OVER 56 points
It’s business as usual for the New England Patriots, as they find themselves in yet another AFC Championship game. With all of the impressive and explosive athletes that take the field every week in the NFL, people sometimes forget what a huge difference coaching makes. Last week’s matchup of the Chargers vs. the Patriots was a very blunt reminder that coaching is the most important determinant in the playoffs. Your strengths from a personnel and scheme perspective get you into the playoffs, but your weaknesses get you knocked out of the playoffs. The Patriots roster is not as good as the Chargers and it’s not even that close. However, they absolutely dominated them because of the ability to attack the Chargers weaknesses and roll out new looks to not allow their own weaknesses to be exploited. The Chiefs have one of the best 3 offenses in the league…there isn’t any debate about that. However, they have by far the worst defense left in the playoffs and are going against the greatest Coach and QB combo of all time. This is a rematch of a primetime game where we thought the Patriots actually kept it pretty vanilla and appeared to be holding something back knowing it was likely they’d see the Chiefs when things really mattered. Well, here we are. These championship games and Super Bowl spreads are always razor tight value since they are so widely bet. We like the Patriots at +3, but if for some reason this thing goes under a FG, we think you’re starting to get into coin flip territory and should lay off or wait for a live or halftime line.
The game total opened at 58 points and got down to 54.5 on Friday when the weather was expected to be very harsh. It is now sitting at 56 points at most books and we still think there is value at that level. As mentioned, we see the Patriots having their way with the Chiefs defense, but also, we still think that Mahomes and crew are going to have a lot of success moving the ball as well. The first time these two faced off it was 43-40 (83 points) and although we don’t think the pace will be as fast, we still think this is somewhere in the 62-70 total points range based on the efficiency of the two offenses, regardless of weather.
[3.3 Units] New Orleans Saints at home with the Rams
6.6 Units – NO -2.5 or less
3.3 Units – NO -3
No Action – NO -3.5 or more
As previously mentioned, the spreads on this round of games are typically very solid numbers and this game isn’t an exception. Our models have a very slight edge to New Orleans at 3.5, but it is nowhere near what we need for it to be a true GreenZone. If it somehow gets to -2.5, we’d take. That being said, the qualitative adjustments make us much more comfortable taking the Saints at home as a 3-point favorite, even if it’s -115 or -120 juice. They are a different team at home and know what it’s like to get to the big dance and bring home the trophy. Brees and Payton know how to execute in this sort of pressure packed atmosphere and as discussed in the first write-up, coaching and QB play matters. Goff and McVay are clearly two young stars that are going to have a lot of success in this league, but they are not ready to make the on-the-fly adjustments it’s going to take to waltz into NOLA and go back to LA with their ticket to the Super Bowl in tow. The Saints are our number-2 power ranked squad and the fact that they are better than the Rams should mean a 3-point home win.