NFL Divisional Pick Recap
Each week we'll be providing our pick recap to validate our performance and give everyone an in depth view of what our subscribers receive. Let's have a look at the selections below from Divisional Weekend.
The GreenZone had a down weekend going 1-2, we lost -7.6 Units. Straight Bets are up 32.55 Units on the year, and exotics are up 11.85 Units! Bringing our season cumulative total to +44.4 Units good for a 44.4% return on a $10,000 bankroll.
The Yellow and RedZone were down as they finished 0-1, the system overall had a tough weekend going 1-3 straight up. Above is a breakdown of the entire Zone performances, along with Bankroll return based on our recommended unit sizing of each GreenZone game and exotic wagers. For the record we only recommend and count towards our units the GreenZone games. Red and Yellow are purely for conversation purposes and used in larger formats where all games are needed.
Below is our write up sent to our Subscribers:
We didn’t have the screaming start to the playoffs we were hoping for, but the good news is we are still up a whole bunch of units and we have a surprisingly full slate for only four games total to pick from. We are #RoadDawgs this weekend and it’s not a position we are unfamiliar with. The public loves betting on the divisional winners who are hosting the games and coming off of a bye week. All three of these are true system plays without even a dusting of a caveat, so we are very confident we are going to bounce back and take that playoff GreenZone record up to 3-1-1 for the 2018-2019 season.
In related good news, we have a 3-team teaser recommended play this week. We are playing 1 unit to win 1.5 on a regular 3-team 6-point tease on the three GZ games. That gets us IND +11.5, LACH +10, and PHI +14. We think we could possibly have a couple outright underdog money line winners, so to be getting double diggies in each of those matchups gets the value.
[6.6 Units] Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) at Kansas City
6.6 Units – IND +5 or more
3.3 Units – IND +4.5
No Action – IND +4 or less
The Colts stayed white-hot last week, now winning 10 of their last 11. Not only is the string of success impressive, they appear to become a more and more complete team with each passing week. There is always talk about teams peaking at the right time of the year…we can’t say if they have peaked or not, but the Colts are on one hell of a run. The Colts offense is now up into our top-5, which puts them 4 slots behind the number one ranked Chiefs offense. That being said, we now have the Colts defense comfortably within our top-10, whereas the Chiefs are still one of the worst-7 defenses in the league. We know Arrowhead presents the narrative of home field advantage, but they are 0-6 in their last 6 home playoff games and haven’t won in the post-season at Arrowhead in 25 years! We aren’t saying the Colts are going to win, as our models have them as about 3.5-point dogs, but we do like them to keep pace with the Chiefs and keep it within a touchdown. The Chiefs are going to get theirs on offense, but they haven’t been able to stop much of anything on defense and the thought of them suddenly turning that around against a top-5 offense seems like a remote possibility.
[6. 6 Units] Los Angeles Chargers (+4) at New England
6.6 Units – LACH +3.5 or more
3.3 Units – LACH +3
No Action – LACH +2.5 or less
This Chargers team went on the road last week and took care of business against a Ravens team that had been playing very well over the second half of the season. We have the Chargers as our 3rd overall team and a couple of slots ahead of the Patriots. The Chargers have a better offense and better defense than the Patriots, with the relative advantage being a bit wider on the defensive side of things. If the pass rush and coverage this week are anything like it was last week, the Patriots are going to have their hands full. The recipe for stopping the Pats is pressuring Brady and playing press coverage or pressuring Brady and consistently tackling on short gainers until you get a mistake in the form of a tipped ball or strip sack. The Chargers seem to have both of those approaches well within their tool kit and Ingram and Bosa looked like their hair was on fire last week. On the flip side, the Patriots are limited defensively and are one Bill Belichick away from being a Chiefs-level bad defense. They are playing at about a league-average level because of the scheme, but that is not going to be enough to stop the talent-packed Los Angeles offense. It is VERY difficult to beat the Patriots in Foxboro…specially in the playoffs. However, our models have this as a 2 to 2.5-point game…so don’t be surprised if Rivers shocks the world tomorrow.
[6. 6 Units] Philadelphia Eagles (+8) at New Orleans
6.6 Units – PHI +7 or more
3.3 Units – PHI +6.5
No Action – PHI +6 or less
The first time these two teams played this season the Saints absolutely demolished the Eagles with a 48-7 drubbing. Carson Wentz threw 3 interceptions and the Saints added 3 sacks for good measure. That was about as hot as the Saints got this year, having scored 45 points against the Rams two weeks prior and 51 points at Cincinnati the weekend before. It is a different time of the year now and the Eagles are in a much different place. Our models have this as a 4 to 6-point game in favor of the Saints, so to have potentially 4 free points and be on the other side of a touchdown, it’s a true GreenZone all the way. The Eagles went on the road last week and played a vastly superior defense against the Chicago Bears and were able to consistently move the ball and score enough points to squeak out the victory. We aren’t backing them as outright winners here, but to be getting this many points against a team that is starting to hit their stride is something we can’t pass up. We continue to evaluate data week-by-week and the Eagles have now won 4 games in a row and 3 of the 4 were against playoff teams this season (Rams, Texans, and then obviously Bears). The Saints are still a very good team, but their offense and defense have slipped down our rankings during the last quarter of the season. Additionally, they rested starters in Week 17 which means they haven’t played real football in almost a month. Take the points and as long as the Eagles offense takes care of the football, we should come out with the 3-0 GreenZone weekend!