NBA Wednesday - Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz Prediction

Denver Nuggets (31-14) @ Utah Jazz (26-22)

Location – Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City UT

Tip – 10:30 est

Line – Utah -3.5

Lean - Utah to cover 3.5

 

We have a pretty meaningful game for mid-way through the NBA season tonight that could potentially have seeding and tie breaking implications when the season is all said and done.  This didn't appear to be the case a couple weeks ago before the Jazz won 6 of their last 7 games to fight back into the Western Conference playoff mix.  The Nuggets have been ripping all season and are only 1 game behind the Warriors for first place in the conference.  However, with their 31-14 overall record, they are an amazing 20-4 at home...leaving a still respectable, but less impressive, 11-6 mark on the road.
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This matchup features an exciting head-to-head battle at one position that has lost it's importance over the recent past, the 5.  We have two dynamic big fellas squaring off in what will likely have a very large impact on the final outcome.  Nikola Jokic is putting up Lebron-like numbers in that he leads the Nuggets in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game.  When is the last time a center led their squad in assists and steals...someone have ESPN dig that one up. While he typically is an instant mismatch walking in the door, the Jazz are equipped to handle his unique skill-set with a very athletic, young, seven-footer of their own with Rudy Gobert. We think Gobert should be able to keep Jokic in check tonight at home and it will force the Nuggets out of the rhythm they've established on the offensive end.
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Our models see this as about a 4.5-point game in favor of the Jazz.  While that does lead us to lean on them to cover the 3.5-point spread, it is not enough value for us to recommend them as a valued GreenZone play.  We hand out our analysis on a couple prime-time games a week, but our subscribers receive the valued plays on each day there is action worth being on for just $8 a week.  Sign up today to join the season-long journey of stacking units!