NBA on ESPN Wednesday Night - Warriors at Rockets Prediction
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Tip: 9:30pm EST
Market Line: Houston -4
ProMathletics Play: GreenZone 2-Units on Golden State +4
This is a big match-up late in the year that isn't likely going to change seeding in the grand scheme of things, but it is an important mental victory for whichever team pulls out the W. Steph Curry has publicly stated he thinks this game is an opportunity to send a message. That is not unrelated to the fact that the Rockets are 3-0 against the Warriors this year and would make it a clean 4-0 season sweep if the 4-point road dog Warriors don't get the upset.
There is some very obvious noise in the data with Kevin Durant listed as OUT for the game after tweaking his ankle on Sunday. It doesn't appear very serious and if this was truly a playoff game, he'd likely be playing. Our models have this game as Rockets +0.5. We understand Durant is a top-5 player in the league, but 4.5-points of value for the remaining Warriors squad taking the floor is still a green light in our qualitative opinion.
The Rockets have been hot and are as healthy as they have been at any point during the 2018-2019 season. On the flip side, the Warriors have been in a funk with guys being dinged up and the recent Steve Kerr lip-reading to drip a little more gas on what has been the rockiest of recent seasons for the defending back-to-back champs. All of the narratives have helped push this one firmly into the comfort zone for public bettors taking the Rockets as faves. That is fine with us, we aren't calling for a Warriors ML win, but we will take the cushion of 4-points and watch this one hit 6 times out of 10!