NBA on ESPN Wednesday Night - Nuggets at Lakers Prediction

DENVER NUGGETS AT LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Tip-off: 10:30pm EST on ESPN

Market Line: Denver -5.5

ProMathletics View: 2-unit play on Lakers +5.5

 

We know, we know, we know... the sky is falling in Los Angeles, LeBron is washed up and doesn't care, Luke Walton is a lame duck head coach, it's all over for the Lakers in 2019 and they probably won't win another game.  That mutual understanding aside, let's take a deeper look at the late matchup tonight on ESPN with the Denver Nuggets as 5.5-point road favorites against the Los Angeles LeBrons.

 

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers prediction

One of the problems with betting on NBA basketball is the noise created by the night to night relative unfairness in the opponents scheduling situations.  Denver lost on the road on Monday night down in San Antonio before taking the 3.5 hour flight to LAX.  The Lakers lost on Monday night at home.  Our models take into account scheduling and travel factors and this is undoubtedly an advantage for the home squad.

What is even more impactful is the Denver Nuggets home/away splits.  They are battling Golden State for the #1 seed and are without a doubt one of the best basketball teams in the league.  With their impressive 42-21 overall record they are an outstanding 27-6 at home.  However, they are only 15-15 on the road.  Just considering this split takes them from #1 or #2 team in the league all the way down to league average.  

Our models do have the Nuggets squeezing out a 1-point win, so they are overcoming home-court advantage and still coming out ahead in our proprietary models mean expectation.  That being said, they are very overvalued at 5.5-points and that is the exact market discrepancy we profit from.  It's scary to buy low, but when you have the data sets we do, it's easy to trust in these situations and take home some easy units. 

We actually have one more valued play tonight that went out to all our paid subscribers along with this one earlier.  Sign up for a weekly package as low as $8 a week to receive all NBA plays!


Leave a comment