Monday Night Injury Bowl - Week 6

What a Sunday for our subscribers.  Our GreenZone plays went 5-1-1 on the day and we also hit both exotics.  The 5-team parlay and teaser both included: Pittsburgh, Miami, Arizona, Dallas, and Kansas City.  As published, Arizona was at +10, so that demoted our 5-team parlay to a 4-teamer, but we were obviously still good to go on the teaser.  We will be out with our weekly NFL recap tomorrow, but when you stack +37 units in one day, you gotta take the 24-hour rule for a little sneak peak celebration.

 

On to the Monday Night Football match up with the San Francisco 49ers at the Packers... What a mess.  We often talk about caveats in the data and confidence that the team taking the field any given day/night is going to perform at a level consistent with their previously measured performance.  It is very hard to get that feeling for either of these teams and that is why we had to kick it into the yellow zone.  The truth of the matter is you are lying to yourself if you think you can project the final outcome in a game where both sides have so many guys who are questionable/game time decisions.  We don't even know who is ultimately going to take the field, let alone what sort of performance level they will be able to play.  If it's a couple guys on one side or the other, it's one thing, but when both teams have a plethora of uncertainty, it's usually well advised to stay away.
If all injuries are ignored (which is a flawed assumption), the system value is on the 49ers.  Our models actually love the 49ers, but the problem is there hasn't been enough Beathard snaps in the recorded data and the models also don't know about the multiple injuries along the offensive line, RBs, WRs, and TEs for San Fran!  On the other offensive side of the ball, the Packers may get back Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb at WR which would definitely boost our offensive ratings for Green Bay.  Again, the problem is they are both questionable and rumors are they are going to be held out so they can get to 100% with the bye week on deck. 
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With so much uncertainty, it's an easy one for us to stay away from...specially after absolutely CRUSHING this week.  If you are hungry to chase because you weren't on the cash express with us this weekend, or you are forced to make a selection in a pick 'em league ATS, we will side with our system value of 49ers +9.5.  

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