Monday Night Football Week 12 - Titans vs. Texans Prediction

Tonight's matchup of the Titans visiting Houston makes for an interesting predicament for our non-subscribing followers.  In our published picks sent out to paying subscribers on Saturday at 2pm, the Titans were still in the +6 to +6.5 range.  This game was a GreenZone play at those levels, but as Saturday turned to Sunday and it was official Marcus Mariota was going to be playing, this game has tightened all the way in to the +3.5 to +4 range...which now falls into our "No Action" range.

The write-up from Saturday is included below, but there are a couple of tidbits we have for our free play Monday Night Football readers: 

  1. Sign up for a subscription!  We are running a 1-day ONLY 50% off all subscriptions using promo code: cyber50.
  2. Wait for a live line in the GreenZone range if you didn't bet this game on Saturday.  There's no reason to chase the line at +3.5 or 4, if the Texans get a field goal or touchdown to take an early lead, the live line will jump back up to that +6 or more range where you can get a wager in that has a positive expected value.

 

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans - Monday Night Football Prediction

[6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Houston

6.6 Units – TEN +6.5 or more

3.3 Units – TEN +6

No Action – TEN +5.5 or less

These are two teams who are intimately familiar with each other, being divisional rivals, but also because Vrabel was the defensive coordinator in Houston before taking the Tennessee HC job this year.  They played in Nashville Week 2 and the Titans snuck a 20-17 home win after a handful of shenanigans and some bad play down the stretch by Deshaun Watson.  Houston has got hot after the slow start, winning the last seven games in a row to sit at their current 7-3 record.  The Texans D is still the identity of the team, but the offensive line giving Watson enough clean pockets to make plays down the field has been the difference maker over this great run they’ve had.  The Titans are not as easy to weave a narrative arc around since they have basically been bipolar all season.  They have a handful of really good wins and a handful of headscratchers where they look like they are complete dogshit.  All we can do is trust the overall season data and hope to be on the right side of that spectrum again like we were when they were getting points at home against the Patriots.  It looks as if Marcus Mariota is full go and going to be starting, which was the only real caveat we were trying to make sure didn’t go against us.  We think the Texans win this game, but a touchdown in this match up is a lot.  We need the Titans D to maintain their bend but don’t break mentality and continue to shut down the run.  If they can turn the Texans offense into a one-dimensional pass attack, we’ll have a great shot at covering with the points.