Monday Night Football - Vikings at Seahawks
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
RedZone [no action] - Vikings (+3)
Monday Night Football heads to Seattle in a bigtime NFC showdown with two teams who could still potentially end up as the #1 seed in the conference. The Seahawks (9-2) have won 4 in a row and their only two losses were against the Saints and Ravens. The Vikings have won 6 of their last 7, with the lone loss coming against the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
This game is falling into our RedZone because our models have it as a 2.5-point game in favor of the Seahawks. That represents a half-point of value vs. where the market line has been all week, but that is nowhere near enough to fall into our positive expected value threshold. It's a huge game and there are obviously plenty of strengths for each of these sides. They are basically carbon copies of each other from an efficiency standpoint on offense, although they go about their business different ways. When the relative strengths/weaknesses are this close to a wash, it's not surprising our calculated spread and the market's are both right at simply home field advantage. Put these two teams on a neutral field and it's a pick 'em.
If you are forced to play the game in a pick 'em league, we recommend the Vikings with the slimmest margin of value possible. However, what our team will be doing is waiting for a potential live line if there are some flukey early plays that create an in-game situation that we think will correct before the clock reaches 0:00. If the Vikings get up to +7.5 or the Seahawks get down to +any points after some turnovers or big plays, we may consider taking a little entertainment bet.