Monday Night Football Titans @ Cowboys
What's new? It's November, our models are once again performing where we expect and we fully anticipate finishing another season with a 60%+ Win rate with our GreenZone picks. We went 3-1 this week and are 7-3 over the last two weeks. Halfway through the season, we are up 23.8 units, picking up steam, and are looking to add more units tonight, as we have the pleasure of a Monday Night Football GreenZone play in Arlington, TX. It's important to note, that our lines are based on the Las Vegas SuperContest, and that 6.5 point line is no longer available at any book we've seen. See below for wagering guidance at the current state.
Without further ado, onto the pick...
[6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Dallas
6.6 Units – TEN +5.5 or more
3.3 Units – TEN +5
No Action – TEN +4.5 or less
This Monday Night Football game will undoubtedly have Jason Witten all boned up…getting to talk about the Dallas Cowboys for 100% of the broadcast instead of just 70% of the time like he does when the game doesn’t include his former team. Both of these teams are coming off byes and should be well rested. Zack Martin was on the injury report all week, but has been declared good to go. Dallas had 5 others who were not able to practice on Friday, so they are definitely the more banged up of the teams at this point. The numbers for Tennessee have been improving (despite Ws and Ls) since their offensive line returned to health after the first couple weeks of the season and we like their physical run game keeping this one within 1-score.
Our models have these two teams being very close to each other in terms of overall performance, so this should be closer to a 3 to 3.5 type of line than the 6.5 as published by the Las Vegas SuperContest. This is a line that has come down at most books, but there still may be an opportunity from the value we see. This is a classic live line game. Even if the Cowboys just get a FG before the Titans, the live line could go up to 7. So monitor the live lines throughout the 1st half, if you can snag +5 at any point, we say go for it. We expect the Cowboys to squeak out the home win (specially if Cooper can help them step up on the outside), but the Titans sneaky good D and ball control offense should keep us close.