Monday Night Football - Ravens at Rams
[6.6 Units] Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
6.6 Units – BAL -3 or less
3.3 Units – BAL -3.5 or 4
No Action – BAL -4.5 or more
This one went out to our paid subscribers on Saturday at 2pm with the rest of our NFL plays. As always, the line reflects what was posted for the Las Vegas SuperContest.
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This Monday Night Football game is a little out of the ordinary for us in that it feels very “trappy” and 79% of the public is on the Ravens at time of writing (according to Sports Action Network). Taking a primetime road favorite is always a bit of a gut check if you know how badly the public typically gets waxed on these games, but our numbers are just too overwhelming in favor of the Ravens to ignore. Our intrinsic spread on this game is Baltimore -6.11 points and when you look at the relative strengths between these two teams, it’s not hard to understand why. The Ravens are the #1 offensive rushing team, #5 passing the ball, and #3 against the pass. They are in the very upper tier of our data, while the Rams have been very average in 2019. The Rams haven’t been able to run or pass with much efficiency and find themselves struggling to find the spark that carried them to the Super Bowl last year. Meanwhile, this Ravens defense is rounding into form like it did the second half of the 2018 season. At the end of the day, we are very confident this Ravens offense is going to be able to consistently move the ball and score points. It’s going to be a public side, but our models don’t care how many tickets or what amount of money has been wagered on either team. The only thing that matters is the ability of the two teams taking the field and whether or not our projected line has enough value in it to get us into a positive expected value proposition.