Monday Night Football in Vegas - Saints at Raiders

Allegiant Stadium gets christened tonight, as the 'actually in Las Vegas' Raiders host the Saints for Monday Night Football.  As many of you saw in our weekend writeup, we have the Raiders in the yellowzone, as a suggested lean not quite worthy of a bet.  The line on this one has been stuck at 5.5-points in favor of the visiting Saints, but our models have it as a 4-point game.  The difference in those two (1.5 points) is where our positive expected value comes into play.  Unfortunately, only games where we have 3 or more points of gap between those two have historically resulted in a win percentage where you make money after paying the juice.  We have about a 53% win expectancy for a game that has 1.5 points of value. 

What's all this mean if you are looking for some action??  If you are in a pick 'em league where you must take a team, roll with the Raiders as you do have a 53% vs. 47% chance of getting the win.  If you're trying to get some action just for shits and giggles...hold off on betting anything before the game starts and see if you can get a live line that makes sense after an early score (Saints by anything less than a FG and Raiders getting a full TD are both compelling).  Alternatively, the o/u at around 48.5 points looks like a prime "take the over" target.  New Orleans is going to be a top-3 offense all season long (with KC and BAL) and the Raiders should have some juice opening up the new digs in primetime.  We'll be back tomorrow with the weekly recap, but for tonight, it's entertainment bets only. 

Leave a comment