Monday Night Football - Doubleheader

 

We started week 1 where we left off the 2018 season, which is to say, very hot. We were a point away from a perfect showing as Carolina recovered none of the approximate 30 fumbles (need to check the stats for actual numbers). But we'll take a 4-1 on the 1st Sunday.  The good news is we have two more GreenZones tonight, and we're giving them away, gratis. Just remember that our lines are based on the Westgate SuperContest lines that are frozen on Wednesday. 

 

[6.6 Units] Houston Texans (+7) at New Orleans Saints

6.6 Units – HOU +6.5 or more

3.3 Units – HOU +4.5 to +6

No Action – HOU +4 or less

The New Orleans Saints are perennial slow starters.  We wrote about this in our Week 1 NFL write-up last year when we had the Buccaneers +9.5 playing in the dome.  What was the outcome… Tampa Bay fucked around and ended up just winning the game outright.  A lot of people thought it was a fluke, but the Saints take a little while to get their rhythm…it’s not anecdotal at this point.  Even without weighting a “time of the season” tendency, our models still like Houston to only lose by 3.5 to 4.5-points.  Houston’s main issues the last couple of years are keeping the QB clean and staying healthy on defense.  The Texans’ front office-ish has been getting blasted by the media for mortgaging the future success of the organization to protect the QB today, but net net, the roster taking the field this week is better than it was before the trades were made.  We aren’t worried about 2-3 years from now…we are only evaluating this Monday.  It’s always a little frightening going against the Saints at home, but we have had success at picking our spots and don’t have any reason to override our model results for this one.

 

[3.3 Units] Oakland Raiders (+2.5) home with Broncos

3.3 Units – OAK pick ‘em to +any points

No Action – OAK -1 or more

This line was a pick ‘em on Wednesday night when the Westgate released the Las Vegas Super Contest lines for Week 1.  Anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock knows the line has taken some twist and turns since that point, ostensibly driven by the sideshow circus that is Antonio Brown.  Well as we all know, AB has moved on to greener pastures, however, our models have the Raiders as a 3-point favorite without AB.  So, we still have the Raiders with significant system value.  Why did we demote it to a partial play, you ask?  Well, it is very hard to quantify what impact the distractions of the off-season/camp shenanigans have had.  The data is there, but we are dialing back our exposure because of the increased level of uncertainty surrounding where the collective heads and preparation for the entire team are at.  Other than the hoopla, we love it!

ht!