Monday Night Baseball - Reds at Dodgers

Monday Night Baseball

Cincinnati Reds (5-9) at LA Dodgers (9-8)

Market Line: LAD -150

ProMathletics Value: LAD -150

Starting Pitchers:

Reds - Luis Castillo (R)

Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw (L)

 

After winning 4 straight the Reds winning streak came to an end last night, as they got beat by the Cardinals 9-5. Former Dodger, Yasiel Puig, finally got on the board with his 1st home run. He will look to keep a hot bat as his new team heads west to face his old squad in a 3-game series. The Dodgers finally ended a six-game losing streak last night as they beat the Brewers 7-1. Clayton Kershaw makes his season debut tonight.  Kershaw dealt with some shoulder inflammation this spring that shut him down for a couple of weeks.  The Dodgers offense sits 2nd with a 137 wRC+ and is one of the best at not striking out, 18.6%. Cody Bellinger has been on fire to start the year. He has 9 hr, .424 BA, and 258 wRC+. Lack of starting pitching, due to injuries has kept this team 1 game above .500. Once healthy they will no doubt be in the playoff hunt.

Luis Castillo for the Reds has an impressive .92 era to start the year after 3 starts. However, his SIERA in sits at 3.63 and hitters have been very unlucky, as his BABIP sits at .135. Offensively the reds wRC+ is 77 which is towards the bottom of the league. They also are top 10 in strikeouts at 25.2%.

Priced at -150 feels like a pretty good discount for a 3-time NL Cy Young winner. Coming off two unimpressive starts in AA and AAA, the market is skeptical of the aging Kershaw, which is understandable. However, our models love the value at -150 and this game lands as a Greenzone wager. Kershaw doesn’t have to be perfect tonight; he will get plenty of support from his offense and the Dodgers will get the win.

Dodgers -150


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