Monday Night Baseball - Phillies at Mets
Monday Night Baseball
Philadelphia Phillies (12-9) at NY Mets (11-10)
Market Line – NYM -115
ProMathletics Lean – Phi +105
Phi – Jake Arrieta (R)
NYM – Steven Matz (L)
We get #1 vs #2 in the NL East tonight for Monday Night Baseball. The Phillies have a one game lead over the Mets as the two square-off for a three-game series. Both teams met last week, as the Phillies took the series winning two of three.
The Phillies are coming off a road series against the Rockies where they lost three of four. Jake Arrieta gets the rock tonight as he has been performing like his 2015 NL Cy Young self. Last week against the Mets, Arrieta went into the 9th inning and picked up the win giving up only 6 hits and 2ER. However, while a 3-1 record and 2.25 era looks great, some of his underlying numbers are due for some regression. His BABIP is at .213 (extremely low) and he has a 90% LOB rate (extremely high). Both stats are reflections of his 5.30 SIERA and are a red flag. It is only a matter of time that lady luck will swing her ugly head. The Phillies' offense is about 8% better than league average in runs created and 11% better when facing a lefty. Bryce Harper is leading the charge as he has now reached base safely in every game this year. Harper wRC+ versus lefties this year is 247!
The Mets lost another road series this weekend, as the Cardinals took two of three. They get to start a home stand tonight, as Steven Matz looks to improve from his last outing against the Phillies. Last Wednesday, Matz didn’t record an out and left the game giving up 8R (6ER). Michael Conforto hit 2 home runs against the Phillies last series and has a 188 wRC+ versus righties this year. The Mets are 12% better creating runs than the league average but 1% against right-handed pitchers.
Arrieta is bound to meet some regression but it would be difficult going against a hot hand and a slightly better offense. We don’t see any value in this game but lean toward taking the positive juice at +105.