Monday Night Baseball - Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals

Monday Night Baseball

Philadelphia Phillies (19-14) @ St Louis Cardinals (20-14)

Market Line – Stl -125

ProMathletics lean –  Stl -125

Starting Pitchers:

Phi – Vince Velasquez (R)

Stl – Miles Mikolas (R)

 

The NL East 1st place, Philadelphia Phillies, head to St Louis to take on the NL Central 2nd place team, St Louis Cardinals. The Phillies are coming off a long home stand and recently took 2 of 3 against the Nationals. The Cards come home after getting swept in Chicago this past weekend. The Cardinals will get their ace on the bump tonight and look to start a new winning streak.

Miles Mikolas had a break out year in 2018. The Cardinal pitcher went 18-4 with a 2.82era. 2019 has not been the same. Mikolas is currently 3-2 with a 4.73era. Advance stats show no signs of regression as his SIERA sits at 4.99. The biggest difference so far this year has been the lack of guys chasing pitches. His O-swing% is down almost 7%. Though he’s considered the #1, his end of the year stats will reflect a back end of the rotation pitcher. The Cardinals offense has a 104 wRC+ and increases to 114 against righties. 25 year old shortstop, Paul DeJong, is hitting .336 with a 164 wRC+.

The Phillies will be throwing their #4 pitcher, Vince Velasquez. VV, is 1-1 with a 2.73era in 26.1IP. He has electric stuff as he averages over 9ks/9, but walks have always kept him from putting together quality outings. He is still walking about 3.4/9, but so far has gotten away with it as he has left 91% of guys on base. As his LOB% decreases his era will increase and he will be back to his projected stats. The Phillies offense is about league average as they have a 103 wRC+. Rhys Hoskins leads the team with 10 home runs and a 177 wRC+.

Our model thinks STL should be favored more and gives us enough value to make the Cardinals a Greenzone play. VV is due for some serious regression and so far, the Cardinals have been a better hitting team. Also, the Phillies are 5-7 on the road, while the Cardinals are 12-4 at home. 

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