Monday Night Baseball - Oakland A's at Boston Redsox

Monday Night Baseball

Oakland A’s (14-16) at Boston Redsox (11-17)

Market Line – Bos -140

ProMathletics lean – Oak +130

Starting Pitchers:

Oak – Frankie Montas (R)

Bos – Eduardo Rodriguez (L)


The post-World Series woes continue for the Boston Redsox as they host the Oakland A’s on Monday night. The former Champions of the World are coming off a 2-game sweep and sitting 6 games below .500 (11-17). The A’s head to Boston after the Blue Jays swept them for the second time this year. Oakland is 14-16 and sitting 4th in the AL West.

Frankie Montas as been stellar so far this year for the A’s. He is 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA. His SIERA is slightly higher but still under 4. Montas added a split finger to his arsenal this year and it is paying off. He has decreased his fastball usage by 10% and increased his new split finger by 17%. The results, 10% decrease is opposing hitters hard contact, and a 14% increase in groundballs. The offense is led by Khris Davis who has 10 long balls on the year. As a team they have a 97 wRC+ but 121 versus lefties in 321 plate appearances.

2018 AL MVP, Mookie Betts, is hitting .269 compared to .346 last year and J.D Martinez has been struggling with back spasms and is questionable in tonight’s game. As a team, they have an 84 wRC+ and a dismal .235 batting average. Eduardo Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 5.88 ERA. His SIERA has him slightly better at 4.26, but free passes and a low LOB% rate are running the southpaw’s outings.

Without making travel and home field adjustments we get some value with the A’s, however, after adding those factors and the vig there is no real value in this match up. For entertainment purposes we still lean the A’s. We really like what Montas is doing this year with his addition of the split finger and we just can’t back this JD-less underperforming Boston team.

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