Monday Night Baseball - Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Monday Night Baseball
Milwaukee Brewers (24-18) @ Philadelphia Phillies (23-16)
Market Line – Phi -161
ProMathletics lean – Phi -161
Mil – Freddy Peralta (R)
Phi – Aaron Nola (R)
ESPN is televising another Philadelphia Phillies Monday night baseball game. Last Monday the Phillies were on the road in St. Louis and tonight they are at home, against the Brewers. Last week we went against the Phillies as we did not trust VV on the bump and we were rewarded nicely. Tonight, we are on them as they throw out their Ace, Aaron Nola. The Brewers will be throwing the young hurler, Freddy Peralta. Peralta will be making his 4th start after dealing with a shoulder issue to start the year.
Aaron Nola is 3-0 with a 4.57 era (4.14 SIERA). When digging into Nolas advance stats, a couple things stick out. The first being a tad bit high BAIBP (.336), but the “bad luck” could be due to an 8% and 6% increase in opposing hitters hard% contact and Line drive %, respectively. It seems that to date opposing hitters are making better contact than they have historically. If the trend continues Nola may end the year with an ERA in the 4’s. Not much has changed in a week with the Phillies offense they are still about league average with a wRC+ of 99.
The Brewers have had a ton of success this year mostly due to the hot start of Christian Yelich. Yelich is hitting .338, with 16 home runs, and 37 RBIs. As a team they, like the Phillies, league average with a 98 wRC+, and a 93 wRC+ when facing righties. Like we mentioned, Freddy Peralta, is making his 4th start of the year after dealing with some shoulder issues in April. Peralta is 2-1 with a 6.75 era (4.43 SIERA) through 26.2IP. Peralta is an all or nothing pitcher. He averages about 10k/9 but also walks 4 batters a game. He also tends to give the long ball and does not induce many ground balls.
Vegas has this game priced, Phi -145. Our models think the true price should be, Phi -156. That small amount of value has no significant value and for that reason this is not a Greenzone valued play. For entertainment purposes we are leaning the home team. Philadelphia has won 4 of their last 6 games and they are 14-7 at home. Both teams have similar offensive profiles and Nola is way more stable than the high risk, Peralta.
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