Monday Night Football can’t come soon enough when you have value waiting for you like we do tonight. If you are a paid subscriber, (“ProLievers” as we fondly call them) then you had a heck of a Sunday and are betting with a bigger bankroll tonight. You also know we have Detroit +3.5 (at time of publishing) in the GreenZone. We’ll give the rest of you guys following along a free peak at it here because we like to spread the wealth.
Speaking of wealth… the GreenZone went 6-3 on Sunday for a devastatingly delicious 15.8 Units! That brings our early season performance up to +30.05 Units and a 11-5-1 (69%...nice!) record on suggested plays. Check out what our paid subscribers received HERE to give you an idea of the type of return you receive when you subscribe with us.
Both of these teams got off to rough starts last week…the Lions regrouped and ended up outscoring the Cardinals 35-13 after the 1st quarter…the Giants continued to scuffle in their 19-3 loss at Dallas. This game being Monday night gives Odell Beckham Jr. a little bit more time to rest that ankle, but don’t expect the real OBJ even if he does play. High ankle sprains are no joke and for someone with his skillset it’s even harder to come back from. You can put two rolls of tape on someone on the O-line or in the defensive front 7, but Beckham Jr. needs to be able to accelerate, cut and elevate for him to play his game. More importantly, this Giants offense needs the threat of him explosively splitting your defense wide open at any point if they want to move the ball. Whether he suits up or not, we don’t see that happening this week. The Lions, who feasted on Carson Palmer boner mistakes week 1, could take advantage of a frustrated Eli Manning who has a fondness for saying “fuck it” and chucking ducks into the sky.
The strength of the Giants defense is against the run. They stop the run, forcing long passing situations and eventually cause balanced teams to abandon the run and get outside of their comfort zone. The Lions can’t run the ball on ANYONE, so having to throw the ball 40+ times isn’t something that makes them uncomfortable. They’ll be content spreading the ball around quick on short routes, playing possession football, and waiting for a Giants mistake. They rode that exact game plan to the playoffs last year without even the scent of a run game.
The Lions have a good shot at taking this one outright, but you have to love the hook at +3.5 if you can get it. Keep an eye on OBJ’s status…if it’s confirmed he’s starting, this one could run to +4 or even higher…take it! If he is a no go, it could easily come down to almost a pick ‘em. If the second scenario plays out, back off your bet size a bit because a lot of the value in this game is making sure you get at least 3 points to cover your ass in a close one.