MNF GreenZone Combo Platter
Our full weekend write-up went out on Friday and included the two Monday Night plays in the grid. As promised, below is some additional commentary for the games tonight.
[6.6 Units] New York Giants (+6) at home with Pittsburgh Steelers
6.6 Units – NYG +4.5 or more
3.3 Units – NYG +4
No Action – NYG +3.5 or less
The week of the home dogs continues for us with this match up of the New York Football Giants hosting the first half of the MNF double-header. There is obviously quite a bit of noise in the data from last year, as the Steelers start Big Ben for the first time in basically a full season. Our models have the boys in black and yellow projected for a playoff berth and likely ending up the season in our top-5 overall. We are very confident this version of the Steelers will be better than 2019, so don't come at us saying we aren't baking into the cake that Duck Hodges isn't running around backwards out there.
Our models have this as about a 1.5-point game and that is with the Giants assumed to be slightly below league-average and win about 6-7 games. We expect the offense to improve with a shored up offensive line (on paper) and improved play from 2nd year man, Danny Jones. There won't be any fans in the house, but the Giants are at home on Monday night and have far less rust to knock off than their opponent. We are looking for a fast start out of the G-men before the Steelers pull out a close victory in the 2nd half.
[6.6 Units] Denver Broncos (+2.5) at home with Tennessee Titans
6.6 Units – DEN +2.5 or more
3.3 Units – DEN +2
No Action – DEN +1.5 or more
If there is one home team who should recognize pretty close to the full home field advantage in Week 1, the Broncos are it. There has been limited practice time in 2020, not to mention the lack of squaring off against other teams, so conditioning at elevation should help the Broncos. Drew Lock was 4-1 as a starter last year, with the only lose coming against the Super Bowl champions. The Titans played well down the stretch in 2019, but have had a tendency to start seasons slow under Vrabel. We have the Titans as the superior team over the course of the season, but our models see Denver as 1-point favorites to cash on the money line in the final contest of Week 1.