MLB 1st Half Season Performance

With the MLB season 1st half in the books, we have some time to take a look back at the trends as well as our performance.   

Perhaps the most interesting thing that has jumped out this season is we may be witnessing two of the worst teams of all time.  The Royals and Orioles with win % of .284 and .289 respectfully would be the 2nd and 3rd worst seasons since 1962, with the 2003 Detroit Tigers at .265 as the only team with a worse record.  What is more, the Orioles may have traded Manny Machado by the time this gets published and Zach Britton may be on his way out as well.  You don’t have to be a statistical expert to know this isn’t going to help them win more games in the 2nd half.  While we expect the Orioles to maybe even get worse, the Royals likely improve slightly and end above the .300 mark.

 

Another trend that stuck out to us has been home teams underperforming.  A rather strong trend that has held up throughout several MLB eras has been that home teams win 55% of the time.  So far this season, home teams have won just 54% of the time.  That might not seem like a lot, but over the course of an entire season, that’s over a 50 game difference.  We’ll keep that in mind with a slight nod to home teams in the 2nd half.  Finally, with just 12 teams under .500, we have seen a larger gap between the haves and have nots.  We actually see this trend continuing and will continue to give a slight edge to home favorites especially.

As for ProMathletics’ performance, we have been satisfied but see the improvement over the last month as a strong trend that should continue through the end of the season.  As there are a couple ways to measure performance, we will walk you through the ways we judge ourselves.  Overall, we are 140-107 (57%).  While that is a great win %, in baseball all wins are not created equal.  Therefore, we took two gambling approaches to utilizing our picks. 

The first and most simple gambling approach is simply putting $100 on every game with a $2,000 bankroll.  You can see the results of this flat bet approach illustrated on the left.  As you can see, the system took a little more than a month to really get dialed in, but hasn’t looked back since.  Even with the slow start, if you bet $100 on every pick you would be up 81%.  You can do your own math if you’re a customer that places much greater flat bets.  The point is, we have all done very well. 

Another, more conservative, way to determine performance is to calculate wagers as a % of your total bankroll, with wagers increasing in value as you continue to win more.  For this instance, we again start with a $2,000 bankroll and place a dynamic 2% of total bankroll on every game.  You can see the results to this strategy in the chart to the right.  The same learning curve with some early lessons then transitions with massive increased performance since June that we saw in the previous chart.  This strategy will also limit the downside and increase the upside as we continue to succeed. 

The good news is we still have another half of baseball to continue to collect.  We are now offering monthly and half-season packages available on our products page.  The system is clearly crushing right now.  We are building our bankroll up in preparation for football season…you would be wise to jump aboard and do the same.


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