Let's Get Buc'd Up!
Every public bettor in the galaxy is taking the Patriots tonight. We get it. Here is what you are thinking:
- The Patriots can't lose back to back games to get to 2-3
- Tom Brady is angry and bad things happen to opponents when Tommy is angry
- Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia are too smart for the defense to continue to struggle
While qualitatively we agree with those and the many other similar sentiments that drove this line to Patriots -5.5, the numbers on a quantitative basis disagree. We are backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 at home against the Patriots on a short travel week. The key for this match up, as has been the case for the last several weeks we've gone against the Patriots (1-3 ATS this year, by the way), is the absolutely HORRENDOUS pass defense displayed by the defending champs so far this year. We do agree that there will be some regression towards league average at some point, but right now they are the worst pass defense in the league by quite a wide margin. The Panthers couldn't move the ball against the lowly Saints secondary in week 3, but they racked up chunk yards and TDs last week in Foxboro against what seemed like an endless stream of broken coverage.
Our models don't place a high emphasis on traditional stats, but the passing stats against the Patriots this year are pretty astounding. Brady is having an amazing season...completing 66.5%, 350ypg, 10-0 TD/INT, for a rating of 116.6. However, their defense has allowed a 69.7% completion rate, 335ypg, 11-3 TD/INT, and 116.5 QB rating. They are basically turning the opposing QB into Tom Brady. Jameis Winston, with a full complement of ++ skill guys that now include Dougie Fresh, should be able to put up some points and keep it close at home tonight.
We know the Patriots are going to score points. We know Tommy and Billy are pissed off. But, we also know that defense is garbage at this point in the season. There isn't any noise in the data and or schedule wise that suggests this will be the week they clean things up. We gotta #Trust our stuff and bank on the 62-64% proprietary modeling we have. We see this as a 2-3 point game. Take the points and get two weeks in a row of early collections starting off the weekend before it's even here!