How to Bet on Monday Night Football - Chiefs at Ravens

The defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs head to Baltimore tonight for a showdown that very well could be a preview of the AFC Championship Game.  If you saw our NFL Week 3 Winners write-up, you may have noticed the Chiefs at the top of the YellowZone.  We have them as 2-point underdogs, which means there is about 1.5-points of value when compared to the consensus Vegas line of 3.5-points.

As many of you know, our historical data is generally most effective when there is at least 3-points of difference between the market spread and our intrinsic calc.  With that being said, crossing "key" numbers like 3, or even better, 3 with the half-point hook, do improve the win expectancy.  We have put in a half-bet on the Chiefs at the +3.5, but will look to add if there are any live lines at or above 7-points.  The Ravens have been a well-oiled machine to start the season, but let's not forget who is wearing the big ass rings walking into the locker room.

Patrick Mahomes got paid because he makes plays down the stretch to win big ballgames at key moments.  The biggest knock on Lamar Jackson's dynamic game has been that it goes missing at times when the spotlight is the brightest.  Analytics aside, it would be very hard for someone to make the case that Lamar is more clutch than Mahomes when it's a primetime showdown.  That being said, the football played by the Ravens this season has been superior to the Chiefs in almost every aspect.  They have dominated during the first two weeks and the public is saying they are currently the best team in football.  We do weight recent data more heavily, but our models do not swing with the same magnitude of volatility as public perception.

Kansas City was almost sleep walking through most of the game against the Chargers in Week 2.  Pulling out a 3-point win is at the front of the mind for the public gut-bettors and doesn't look near as tasty as backing the Ravens who have won by an average margin of almost 25 points.  We always prefer to be on the undervalued side of the overreaction and the Kansas City Chiefs offense is still going to be able to have their way tonight.  The weaponry of Kelce, Hill, Edwards-Helaire, Hardman, Robinson, et al. is simply too much to be contained when Mahomes is at the command.  We are expecting a back and forth game, but the 3.5-points will come in handy if the Chiefs aren't able to sneak out the win outright.


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