Don't Get Scared - On to Foxboro
Who takes a 9 point road dawg against the defending Super Bowl champs? That's right...WE do. We have our first GreenZone pick of the year with the Chiefs +9 tonight at Foxboro. It also happens to be our first Las Vegas #SuperContest pick of the year as well...that's how fucking spicy we are feeling about it.
In terms of value, it registers firmly into the GreenZone which has a history of starting off the year very well. Why do we start off well, you ask...because the beginning of the year is typically when the public gets crushed. We have what the Las Vegas books have, an amazing propriety model that allows us to objectively quantify the differences between two teams. The Patriots will likely have the best offense in the league by the time we get into the meat of the season, but don't expect the Edleman-less "new Cooks Pats" to come out with the same continuity they finished with in the second half of last year's SB. This Pats offense is predicated on timing and comfort with one another. Although they have an added option in Cooks, there will still be some growing pains.
How has any team beat the Patriots over the last ohhh I don't know, 16 years? Pass rush and disrupting timing routes. That's it. You want to beat Bill and Tommy you better get in Tommy's kitchen and not let the skill guys carve up a zone defense. The Chiefs are built pretty well to disrupt and man up. Justin Houston and Dee Ford are primed to murder QBs all year and the secondary, led by Erik "I can win games with defensive tuddies when I want" Berry, should slow down the Pats enough to keep it tight. We don't expect the painfully average Chiefs offense to do enough to pull out the win, but keeping it within a TD should get you PAID!