College Football Week 8 - Pick Recap

We had a 5-5 weekend, unfortunately it was our 1 unit plays that showed up and not our much needed 2 unit plays. ASU muffed a punt in the final minutes to put us in the red for the week. We are a solid 44-36 on the year and still up 4 units. A heater is always right around the corner!


We gave back a little last week going 4-5, but remain in the positive with +7.9 units seven weeks into the season. We are nearing the midpoint for most teams and are starting to get a much clearer picture of the true caliber of these squads. Our plays this week include some large spreads, but we are confident in our updated rankings and believe this will be a profitable Saturday for all. Don’t forget we have some Friday Night Lights with Florida Atlantic tonight.


Marshall @ Florida Atlantic (-5.5) – Friday Night
We are back on the Lane Train with captain Joey Freshwater stepping on the gas! After an 0-2 start, FAU has rattled off four straight and has looked strong. Marshall, on the other hand, has been inconsistent and not strong in any facet of the game. They have the 108th ranked scoring offense, which is great news for FAU as their defense has had some issues against high caliber opponents. We don’t see Marshall being able to keep up with FAU, so asking for the Owls to cover 5.5 at home is music to our ears. Don’t let the train leave the building without you as this is a FRIDAY NIGHT GAME.  Lay the points for Joey and let’s stay hot like Lane’s girlfriends. 
Boise St (-7) @ BYU
This line opened with Boise as 1.5-point favorites, but has since ran up to -7 due to BYU QB concerns. Already down QB1, BYU’s backup QB, Jaren Hall, is currently in concussion protocol. If ruled out, the Cougars will be starting their 3rd stringer. The line has moved drastically, but wasn’t close to being correct in the first place. Our model thinks Boise should be favored by 13.5. Obviously at 7 we are getting a ton of value. Lay the points! 
Kansas @ Texas (-21)
We were on the Longhorns last week and they covered with a late backdoor against the Sooners. We are back on them this week as heavy favorites versus Kansas. If Texas pulled out the win last Saturday then we could see this as a letdown game, but because they took the L, we believe they’ll get back in the saddle and take care of business this week. This should be closer to a 4-TD game rather than 3 and will gladly lay the points. 
Northern Illinois @ Miami Ohio (+2.5)
Both teams come into this game 2-4. The biggest difference is Miami has played three top 25 teams in Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Iowa. This aggressive non-conference schedule has really skewed the data to make them look a lot worse than they really are. Miami is a middle of the road MAC team that could easily end up 6-6 by year end. Northern Illinois, on the other hand, has just been a bad football team that has played a very weak schedule. We like the 2.5 points of cushion here at home against an inferior opponent. Take the points for the home dog in what should be an outright win. 
Arizona State (+14) @ Utah
This should be an absolute slugfest of a game as both teams are 5-1 with one loss in PAC 12 play. This game features the 10th and 19th best scoring defenses in the country. ASU has the slight defensive advantage, with Utah having a better scoring offense. However, the Utes have not seen a D of this caliber yet, nor have they seen a disciplined and methodical offense like ASU. This should be a test for both teams and we fully expect a great low scoring close game. 14 is just way too many in a game of this magnitude that could have conference title implications. Take the points for the Sun Devils and enjoy.

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