CFB Week 2 - Pick Recap
We worked hard in Week 2 to get some positive units on the board. The result was 5-5 good for .2 units. The system should be primed and ready for a big Week 3. Below you will find an updated YTD performance and full recap of our Week 2 selections and unit sizing. This is what our subscribers get each week in their inbox.
WEEK 2 SUBSCRIBER INFO BELOW
There's no place like home, at least this week. Our models have identified 7 2-unit home games and 3 1-unit homers for us. We like the slate and love taking teams we know can play. So we're trusting a lot a favorites to take care of business this week.
Marshall Thundering Herd at Boise St Broncos (-11)
The Boise St Broncos pulled off the power 5 upset as they defeated Florida State 36-31 and scored the game’s last 23 points. The Broncos get to come home to their blue turf and take on a Marshall team who dominated an FCS school VMI. We see Marshall as a bottom tier team and the Broncos as a top 20 team. To only lay 11 points at home screams value. Lay the points as we see them winning by more than 3 tuddies.
Cincinnati at Ohio State ( -16)
The Buckeyes were disappointing in regard to covering the spread last Saturday. They came out and went up 28-0 in the 1st quarter against FAU. What looked like easy money turned sour quickly as the Buckeyes stalled the rest of the game and only ended up winning by 24. This week they are home again against their little brother, the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats put up an impressive win last Thursday on national tv against a Chip Kelly UCLA team. Luke Fickell a former Ohio State coach knows the importance of this game for his program and will be treating this game as their National Championship. After going up 28-0, coach Ryan Day quickly transitioned to a very vanilla offense and defensively they rotated about 30 guys the second half which allowed FAU to move the ball more than they should have. With that being said, we expect the Buckeyes to stay more aggressive on both sides of the ball and keep their stars in the game longer. We are going to lay the points as our models see the Buckeyes as 3-td favorites.
Wyoming (-7) at Texas State
The Cowboys, as 18-point dogs last week, pulled the upset against Missouri. They look to win back to back games as they head to Texas State as 7-point favorites. Texas State struggled last week as they played a very good Texas A&M team. We covered going against State last week and we are going to go against them again this week. Our models like Wyoming by 14+, lay the points.
LA Monroe at Florida State (-21)
Not a surprise we were going to get value on Florida State this week as they got beat by Boise St last Saturday. After a terrible 2018 season, it looks like many issues were addressed but still have plenty to work on. At one point they were up 31-13 over Boise St but fell apart late. To only have to lay 21 points against a Sunbelt team that will finish towards the bottom of their league is a gift. Start prepping your war chant and working on your tomahawk chop form, as the fans in Doak Campbell Stadium will be doing both on repeat as their Seminoles roll.
Central Florida (-10.5) @ Florida Atlantic
UCF looked as strong as ever last week in their opener, the machine is still humming along. We realize it was a lesser opponent, but we saw a lot of big name programs sputter in that same situation. This spread is likely being helped by the short comings of OSU to really step on the gas and cover against FAU. We hate them for that because we lost that bet, but it has created value this week for us with UCF. We like this one by two scores for the Knights. Lay the points here for the easy cover.
Minnesota @ Fresno State (+3.5)
Fresno got off to a slow start last week before having a chance with USC. We really like this team and the program in it’s entirety. They should be a great mid-major to bet on throughout the year. As much as we love P.J. Fleck, Minnesota is probably still a year away from being a legit contender in the Big Ten and a Top 25 team. Fresno lost two games last year, the first at Minnesota on a last second touchdown, and the second to Boise State in the same situation. They went on to beat Boise a month later and have been waiting to avenge this loss. We like the 3.5 cushion, take the points and the hook here for the cover.
Cal Bears at Washington Huskies (-13.5)
This will be a nice little night capper for us with this game kicking off at 10:30p. Former Georgia QB, Jacob Eason led the Huskies in a routing of Eastern Washington last Saturday. Eason threw for 350 yards and 4 TDs. The Cal Bears beat UC Davis 27-13. Down 10-0 after the 1st quarter, the Bears were able to manage a 14-point win but a struggle, nonetheless. A slow start this Saturday and this game could be over the 1st half. With the new QB and multiple legit wide receivers threats we think the Huskies win by 3-TDs. We love this number under 2 touchdowns.