College Football Rolling into the Weekend
Last week, we got things started off with a respectable 1-1 +0.5 Unit, plus a couple other good reads on the games we stayed away from. Tough to squeeze a lot of juice out of only 5 games, but every weekend you make money is a good weekend.
A shortage of games won’t be an issue this amazing Labor Day College Football Kickoff Weekend. We have a steady drip of games coming at us from Thursday all the way through Monday and we plan to have you in the best position possible the whole time. We’ll be sending out our weekend (Saturday – Monday) picks to our subscribers on Friday. We have one last college football freebie here…winners for Thursday and Friday night to get you some #FreeUnits to get it going. A wise man would reinvest those said units in either a weekly NCAA subscription (smart…only $15 for the good stuff all weekend) OR a season combo platter (VERY SMART…get the best price for NCAA and NFL picks all season).
Best of luck to all. Keep your wits about you and don’t bet 25 games this weekend like a fucking Joe.
[1 Unit] University of Toledo (-37.5) vs. Elon
This one is going to get ugly. The only question is how ugly. Elon went 2-9 last season in FCS and one of those wins was against a Div II Fayetteville St team that went 4-6 themselves. Needless to say, they were not a strong football team. Well the good news is there has been a lot of change (Entirely new coaching staff and new offensive system) and new quarterback(s). New head coach Curt Cignetti has announced he’s still deciding between 2 freshman quarterbacks to implement his new spread offense. Not really a recipe for success against any team on the road to start the season.
The bad news for Curt and his frosh QBs is that they aren’t facing any team, they are facing a legit, high powered offense with a senior QB (Logan Woodside) who led all of FBS in TD passes (45) on 69% (nice) completion rate in 2016. The Rocket offense has most of its weapons back and experience all around. The defense is returning 9 guys from an average unit that helped carry UT to a 9-4 record last year. This one is going to be a bloodbath. A six TD victory seems like a no-brainer, especially with Woodside padding stats to get into some dark horse Heisman talk.
[0.5 Unit] OSU (-20.5) @ Indiana
Ohio State doesn’t rebuild they reload. I don’t give two fucks how cliché that sounds, it’s
the truth for the Bucks this year. I could write a whole book on why OSU is a CFB juggernaut but I’ll spare you the time. They bring back 15 starters including JT Barrett who I think has been there for 10 years. They get a new OC, who by the way was Indiana’s HC LY. The D-Line can’t even start guys who would be starting at every other school in the nation. The Bucks could easily have 4-5 defensive players be drafted in the 1st round next year. Translation: the Hoosiers will not score many points.
This IU team replaces their HC with their DC from last year, Tom Allen. With that being said, they will have a nice little defense that will be respectable versus most other Big Ten schools but not against the Bucks. Under the lights on a Thursday night, the stadium will be all in. Unfortunately, it will be short lived and the Bucks will show why they are a top team and better than the 20.5 spread. Oh, did I mention Urban Meyer is still Ohio State’s HC? In Urban we trust. -@TylerinVegas
[0.5 Unit] Arizona State (-23) vs. New Mexico State
Arizona State left a bad taste in a lot of backers’ mouths down the stretch last year. After ripping off a 5-1 start, they completely ran out of gas and stalled to a 5-7 final record. Head Coach, Todd Graham, is occupying a seat that is somewhere between a sun kissed lava rock and a hibachi grill during the middle of the flaming onion train trick. The problem for Graham’s Sun Devils hasn’t been how they started the year, but instead, lackluster finishes. This offense is primed to be explosive once again and New Mexico State won’t have a chance at stopping big plays if the Devils come out of the gate ready to play for their HC.
We expect to see 45+ points from Arizona State, but the concern is the back-end of the ASU defense will continue to be pathetic. New Mexico State has a run-heavy read-option scheme, so if ASU brings the DBs up to support in run help they could get gashed for some big plays over the top. ASU wins easily, if their D shows up they could coast to an easy cover.
[1 Unit] Navy (-10) @ FAU
If this doesn’t scream value, value, value, to you then you are a square bettor. It’s ok we’ve all been there, that’s why you got your boys at PM to help you overcome this and live up to your wise-guy potential. This line started at -13.5 and the market has driven it down to -10. The market is acting irrationally with FAU’s new coach, Lane Kiffin, taking over and the
addition of players from Eastern Mississippi Community College who were standouts on the show “Last Chance U” on Netflix. If you haven’t watched this show, I recommend swiping right as many times as possible until you get a tinder match that wants to “Netflix and chill.” After you bang, binge watch it and realize that these players are no different than any other D1 player and should not be over hyped.
Kiffin is a good coach and will eventually develop FAU’s program, but they will struggle in this game. On the other side of the ball, you have a well-established program who runs a very difficult to stop option offense. FAU currently does not have the athletes to stop this attack and for that reason we say buy it at -10 and look for a double-digit win.
[0.5 Unit] Northern Illinois (+3) vs Boston College
We are not going to get into talking about specific players in this game, rather you can easily group these teams as offensively bad or defensively good. This is how each side of the ball looks:
Bad Offense (BC) vs. Bad Defense (NIU)
Good Run offense (NIU) vs. Good Run defense (BC)
This line opened this summer as Northern Illinois as favorites but has swung these last couple of weeks towards BC. By our measures NIU is still the better team and we like the better offense in a close game and they are home. So take the points in what should be a low scoring affair.
[1 Unit] Wisconsin (-28) vs. Utah State
Buckle up and get ready for some road gradin’ up at Camp Randall on Friday night. The Badgers return 4 of their starting O-Linemen from last year and that’ll be the story when they have the ball. These dudes are monster, just as they are every year, and they will
manhandle the Aggies defensive front. Load up the box and sellout against the run and then returning QB Horny-brook should be able to find the experienced receiving corps over the top. When Utah State has the ball they will struggle to ward off the deep and talented ‘Sconsin front 7. The clock will keep ticking in this one, but there should be enough time for the Badgers to bash it down their throat for 6+ scores while not giving an inch on D.
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