College Basketball - Kansas vs. Kentucky prediction

College Basketball: SEC Big 12 Challenge

#9 Kansas @ #8 Kentucky

Location – Rupp Arena, Lexington, Ky

Tip – 6pm

Line – Kentucky -6.5

 

We are back again with a huge Saturday match up as the Kansas Jayhawks look to pull out a road win against a smoking hot Kentucky Wildcat team. UK has won 5 in row, as they easily beat #22 ranked Mississippi State Tuesday, 76-55. They have now won back-to-back games against top 25 opponents. Kansas is 4-1 their last 5 games, as their lone loss was at West Virginia. Kansas is 16-3 on the year but 1-3 on the road. This will be great chance to overcome their road woes.

We spoke about Kentucky in Tuesday’s write-up when we previewed them hosting Mississippi State. From the tip of that game UK had complete control and proved that they are a top-10 team in the nation. Led by Keldon Johnson, the Wildcats are averaging 80+pts/ gm and posting a margin of 10+ boards over opponents. Last year, UK struggled against KU due to the Jayhawk’s big man, Udoka Azubuike. With his absence, the Wildcats should be able to dominate the glass and get the ball to hole without worrying about much contesting of shots inside the painted area.

The Jayhawks had to find a new identity with the loss of Azubuike.  Dedric Lawson has picked up his play and leads the team in scoring, 19.5 pts/gm. Lagerald Vick has been lighting it up from downtown as he averages 15 pts/gm and is shooting 45.7% from behind the arc. As a team they are averaging 78 pts/gm.  As you can see to below both teams are very comparable on paper.

 

The line as of this morning is sitting at UK -6.5. Kansas lacking strength and size down low is a concern, but 6.5 is way too many points in this blue blood rivalry. Our models think this should be UK -3. So, at 6.5 we have a true Greenzone game and recommend taking the points in what should be a great game in Rupp Arena.

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