College Basketball Feature Game - Virginia vs. Duke Prediction

College Basketball Saturday Hoops

#4 Virginia (16-0) @ #1 Duke (14-2)

Location – Cameron indoor stadium

Tip – 6pm

 

We have a full slate of college basketball games today. Starting at 12p, ESPN will be airing some of the best games in the nation. The matchup of UVA and Duke at 6p will be the game of the day, if not year. We have an undefeated Caviler team heading to Durham, NC to try and take out the Blue Devils. Duke is licking their wounds as they took an L on Tuesday, as Syracuse pulled out the upset. Duke’s guard, Tre Jones, left that game with an apparent AC joint injury and will likely miss a couple of games.

This will be a game of fast (Duke) and slow (UVA). Duke averages 75.6 possessions/gm and UVA averages 62.1. This will also be a game determined by shooting behind the arc. The Blue devils were 9/43 against Syracuse. Which is crazy they missed that many shots but even crazier that they settled for 45 attempts when they have the athletes that they do. Only 29% of their scoring comes from the three ball. One would assume that Coach K is preaching, “get the ball to the hoop.” UVA on the other hand is very efficient from downtown which results in 39% of their points scored from 3-pointers. This is a game they can’t afford to go cold.

UVA is led by 6’2 guard, Kyle Guy, who averages 15.3pts/gm and for Duke, unless you live under a rock, you know they are led by two elite Freshmen “1 and done” Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. Both players are slated to be top 3 draft picks, Zion hands down number 1.

The line opened up at Duke -2, but has moved overnight to -2.5 some places and even -3 at a couple books at time of writing.  Our proprietary models have this game right at -3, so depending on where the line is when you are reading this write-up, we could have a slight lean, to possibly no lean at all. If it’s at -2 or -2.5, we would recommend Duke if you are forced to pick a side.  At -3, flip a coin and hope for the best.  And at -3.5, we would be leaning towards UVA pulling out a tight cover.  This is going to be a great game, but with Duke at home coming off a loss, we qualitatively would prefer to lay the points, specially given the fact that they will have the best two players on the court and possibly in the country playing in front of their peers in a prime-time game.

 

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