College Basketball - #2 Duke at #3 Virginia

College Basketball

#2 Duke at #3 Virginia

Location – John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA

Line – UVA -2

 

We are back with another full Saturday of College basketball games. At 6pm we get two future NCAA tournament #1 seeds battling it out in Charlottesville, VA. The Duke Blue Devils (20-2) face the Virginia Cavilers (20-1). This is the second match-up for the two powerhouses as Duke was victorious at home on January 19th (72-70). Both teams struggled from beyond the arc in that game, Duke shot 2/14 and UVA 3/17. That was UVA’s only loss on the season, and they will be looking for revenge in front of their home crowd.

Duke’s 3-point shooting has been sporadic all year and Tuesday night was another example of what happens when it struggles. They found themselves down two at half to Boston College after shooting 1/15 from beyond the arc. They ended up knocking some down the second half and beat BC by 24. They are shooting 28.8% on the year. Consistent 3-point shooting is truly their Achilles’ heel. Future top 5 draft pick, RJ Barrett, leads the team in scoring, averaging 23 ppg. Future #1 draft pick, Zion Williamson, is averaging 22 ppg. They are also supported by Freshman, Cam Reddish, who has played his way into future top-10 NBA mock drafts. So, at any given time Duke will have the best two players on the court if not 3.

Virginia is riding a 4-game win streak since their loss at Duke. De’Andre Hunter is averaging 14.7 ppg and Kyle Guy is averaging 14.5 ppg. As a team they are scoring 72.9 ppg and allowing 52.9 ppg. They are 2nd in the ACC shooting 3-pointers (39.5%). So, the 3/17 they shot against Duke last time should be better this go around. The one question mark going into the game is point guard, Ty Jerome. Jerome is suffering from a back strain and was not listed as a starter last night.

This is going to be another great game. Our models have this as UVA -2 and the line as of this morning is UVA -2. So no value to recommend as a GreenZone pick. UVA will shoot it better and have the home crowd on their side this time, but it’s hard not to take Duke and the points, knowing they have the best 3 players in the game. So, we would lean Duke +2 if you want some action.

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