Circle the Wagons

Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.

 

–Winston Churchill


 

That statement by our boy, Winston, could not have been any more accurate for our PROlievers the last two weeks. Week 7 hurt but, not fatal. If you had the courage last week you, like us, recouped all losses. As good as last week was, we are not done as we look to continue the success this week.  The GreenZone is currently sitting at 62.1% and now at 75.05 units (stupid). Fortunately, we don’t have to wait until Sunday to get back on the wagon. We got a GreenZone play tonight.

 

[5.9 units] Buffalo Bills (-3) @ New York Jets

 

This is the second matchup for these two AFC East foes. The Bills won the first matchup at home by ten, week 1. They come into this game 5-2 and with a win can move into a 2-way tie for 1st with the Pats. The Jets come into the game on a 3 game losing skid, though they are not getting the wins, they are 5-2-1 ATS and continue to play hard for their coach, Todd Bowles. If you look deeper at the schedule the Jets have played and, more specifically, the defenses since week 1, you will find a common theme. Below is a table listing the Defense DVOA for both Passing and Rushing of the teams the Jets have played since week 1.

 

 

As you will see, not only have they played some of the worst defense’s in the league (NE, Atl, Oak) but other than the Bills, they have not faced a well-balanced D. When they played a dominant run defense (Mia, Cle) they were able to take advantage in the air. When they faced a tough Pass Defense (only Jax) they rushed for over 200 yards. With playing such bad defenses you would think that the Jets offensive DVOA would be somewhat respectable, right? Wrong, they rank 25th through the air and 29th on the ground. The Jets defense has been slightly better but still towards the bottom of the league. The only real bright spot is defensive end, Moe Wilkerson. Wilkerson who has been dealing with a foot injury all year is not likely to play.

 

When looking at the Bills, their defense has been the life of this squad. All year they have showed up, forced turnovers, and put the offense in good situations. On the other side of the ball, the Bills have just been ok. They are about league average, but have found ways to get it done when needed. After losing Sammy Watkins in a trade, Tyrod Taylor has to be happy with the Bills acquiring WR Kelvin Benjamin from the Panthers. He will finally have another weapon other than McCoy out of the back field. Did I mention the Jets are ranked 27th covering RB’s out of the backfield? Speaking of McCoy, Shady vs. a Moe-less defense? Watch out…. We think this should be a TD spread, so we will gladly lay the 3 points and circle the wagons as we move on to Sunday.

 

 

NOTE: [Units] outlined next to each pick in terms of “to risk” % of bankroll.  5 units = 5% of bankroll or $50 on $1k.  Our bet sizing methodology utilizes the Kelly Equation, and more specifically, half-Kelly.  The sizes are descending because of “assumed losses” which necessitate dynamically reducing the bankroll.

 


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