CFB Week 11 - Pick Recap
CFB had a monster week, going 6-2 for a solid +6.7 units. We got back dialed in and can feel the momentum shifting. Don't miss out on our run from here to Playoffs, there is still plenty of upside left to end the year strong. See below for updated performance and the content that is sent to our subscribers.
The first CFB Playoff rankings came out this week, which is pretty meaningless at this point, but does signal a turning point in the season. This is final stretch. We have weathered some storms the last few weeks and expect a turnaround to finish the season. We will have much to be thankful for by the end of the month.
Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-10)
We have been on the Lane Train 4 times in the last 10 weeks and we will be on them again for the 5th time as they are 10-point home favorites. They are facing an FIU team who is 5-4 but only 2-7 ATS. FAU is rolling after a big win on the road against Western Kentucky. The Owls have been good to us year and we will continue to trust the numbers. Lay the points.
Appalachian State (+5.5) at South Carolina
Well App State disappointed us last week as they not only didn’t cover but lost outright to Georgia Southern. The 7-1 Mountaineers will look to get things going again as they will face the 4-5 Gamecocks of South Carolina. SC’s season has been a roller coaster. They have upset Georgia and beat Kentucky but lost to Missouri and Tennessee. We will trust our model on this one as we see App St getting one back for us.
Utah State (+6) at Fresno State
If you enjoy high powered passing offenses and no defense this is the game for you. Utah State is averaging 27 pts per game and allowing 26. Fresno State is averaging 34/game and allowing 32/game. Utah State’s QB, Jordan Love has been a beast this year, but his lack of taking care of the ball is a concern. However, we don’t see him turning it over against a terrible Fresno defense. This will be a back and forth shootout, but we love Utah State getting the points.
Georgia State (-2.5) @ Louisiana Monroe
Louisiana Monroe comes into this game with the 129th scoring and total defense in CFB. That’s superior only to UMASS. ULM is also 2-6 ATS and failing to cover the spread by a TD a game. Georgia State, on the other hand, is having a under the radar nice season at 6-2 overall. They are top 20 in points and yards per game with a lower tied defense. Seeing this game under a FG is a blessing! It definitely has some shootout potential, but when you are playing the 2nd worse defense in the country, we’ll take the close call. We like GSU here by well over a FG, so lay the points for the easy cover.
Kansas State (+7) @ Texas
We’re back on Kansas State this week. As predicted, they totally controlled the game verses Kansas. They are now 6-2 overall with loses to Oklahoma State and Baylor, both strong teams. Texas has stumbled to 5-3 and is coming off 3 straights weeks of lackluster performance and a near loss to Kansas. There is a lot of pride on the line in this game, but Kansas State is the more complete and more disciplined team. The story-line here is both defenses, one being porous in Texas and one being elite in Kansas State. We’ll take the better defense and complete team getting 7 any day. Take the TD for KSU and don’t be surprised if we get a SU win.