CFB Week 10 - Pick Recap
CFB just can't catch a break with late covers hurting us. We gave a few back this weekend. Overall we are still above 50% but down on units. Stay focused as we should see a push to 55% for year end.
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (-15)
We start week 10 with some Thursday night football. The 7-0 Mountaineers host the 4-3 Eagles. This will be a huge game for App St as they are looking for revenge from last year, when the Eagles beat them 34-14. The Mountaineers have since won 14 straight. Coach Eliah Drinkwitz will have his team ready as they know the importance of every game for bowl bids at the end of the year. This line currently is sitting at just above 2-touchdowns, but our model has the Mountaineers as over 3-touchdown favorites. We will lay the points and kick off week 10 with a cover.
UNLV (+9) at Colorado State
Our models do not like Colorado State this year. We find value against them again even though they took down a very good Fresno State team. The same Fresno State team who put it to UNLV the week before. However, we must trust the numbers and continue to bet accordingly. Take the points and let’s hope to get one back from CSU.
Kansas State (-6) @ Kansas
The 3-5 Jayhawks picked up their first win in the BIG 12 last weekend against Texas Tech. Meanwhile, the Wildcats decided to knock off the 4th ranked team in the country. This is a rivalry game no doubt, and I’m sure the Hawks are pumped up, but the data doesn’t lie. Kansas State is incredibly efficient on both offense and defense. KSU has a top 50 scoring offense, a top 40 defense, and top 10 in time of possession. Essentially, they control the flow of the game and we don’t see that changing this weekend. Don’t let the memory of Kansas hanging around in a few games distort you. Lay the points for KSU here as we see this well over a TD for the Cats.
Florida Atlantic (+1.5) @ Western Kentucky
We’re back on the Lane Train this weekend. Both teams come into this game at 5-3 and have early similar results for common opponents. All of our metrics have Florida Atlantic as the better team overall, with the spread looming closer to -3 for FAU. This game comes down to FAU’s offense versus the WKU defense. We like the FAU offense here as they have seen high caliber defenses already, where WKU’s toughest game has been Louisville. Getting 1.5 is a blessing considering we would still like this game all the way up to -3. Take the points for the Owls and let’s get one for Joey Freshwater!
Boise St (-17) at San Jose State
The 21st ranked Broncos head to San Jose State to take on one of the best passing offenses in the nation. San Jos e State led by Josh Love is averaging over 310 passing yards a game. Boise State is coming off a bye as they lost their first game of the season 2 weeks ago to BYU. SJS is god awful against the run so expect the Broncos to exploit the run defense and keep Love off the field. Broncos are by far the better team and should easily cover by 3-tds. Lay the points on the heavy road favorites.