CFB Pick Recap - Week 9
We just can't catch a break in CFB. After a rippin hot start, the backdoors and late covers are haunting us. We gave a few more units back this week. Below is the updated YTD performance and pick recap. A heater is always around the corner.
There are now just two weeks before we get the selection committee's first set of rankings on November 5th. We have two games this week that will directly impact those rankings. Can Auburn go into Death Valley and take down Coach O and the Tigers? We think they will keep it close enough. Do the Badgers have it in them to bounce back after one of the worst losses in program history? Our numbers and the weather say they have a shot. With the good we gave you some (very) bad. You may not elect to watch Bowling Green or Texas Tech, but the value doesn't lie. As always trust the system and let's get those units.
BGSU (+27) at Western Michigan
The 2-5 Falcons take the road as big underdogs against the 4-4 Western Michigan Broncos. The Broncos, looking for bowl eligibility, are coming off a loss at Eastern Michigan last week. Last time we were on BG they upset Toledo as big underdogs. We are not expecting a straight up win, but we do think 27 points is way too much. We like this game closer to 3-TDs. Take the points!
Oklahoma at Kansas State (+23.5)
We find ourselves against the Sooners once again. The undefeated Sooners are heavy favorites versus the 4-2 Kansas State Wildcats. The Wildcats will tout a run heavy offense and look to control the clock as much as possible and keep Jalen and company on the sideline. K-State always has one of the best pass defenses in the Big 12 (if that’s saying much) and will make the Sooners beat them on the ground. Due to an expected run heavy game, 23.5 points seems like way too much. Our models agree and think the line should be closer to 17. So, buckle up and take the points.
Colorado State at Fresno St (-14.5)
We get some Mountain West action Saturday night. The 3-3 Fresno State Bulldogs host the 2-5 Colorado State Rams. The Rams have a terrible run defense and the Bulldogs are coming off a win against UNLV where they ran for 6 TDs. If they can keep the running momentum going this should be an easy cover. We don’t love the hook here, but the model likes the Bulldogs by 18 points. Lay the points on the home team and get your bark ready.
Auburn (+10.5) at LSU
Yes, Florida beat Auburn in early October and LSU just beat Florida by 14 two weeks ago. On a very basic level you would think LSU -10.5 is a no-brainer. Not so fast my friend, if picking winners were that easy, then we would all be successful. For us it’s about taking the numbers. Our model has this closer to a touchdown game so getting 10 and the hook is value we like. Take the points and enjoy a possible SEC shakeup.
Texas Tech (-4) at Kansas
The Jayhawks got us last week as Texas shit the bed. We are looking for revenge as we are siding with the Red Raiders as 4 point away favorites. This won’t be a fun one to watch as both teams are at the bottom of the barrel in the Big 12. We are going to trust the model and lay the points.