Anotha One In Arrowhead

What a fucking week! 5-0-1 is one way to bounce back after those week 7 scaries.  We are counting the Jets +5 as a push, because we are men of honor and that was the published number.  But let's be honest, we and everyone else had it at +5.5 to +6.5 if you bet it Sunday.  Even calling that game a push we still stacked up 27.4 Units!  That gets us back on pace for a monster year as we are now at 69 Units.  Very nice for multiple reasons...@TyInVegas was absolutely smitten we he did the math this morning and got to report that out to our internal chat.

 

 

 

Enough of the nonesense, on to Arrowhead.  We published this play with our regular stuff on Saturday, but we are going to put it on the internet for all those fools who follow along but don't pay the small investment to get all them good returns, brotherrrrrs.  Let's bring this puppy home...the Chiefs got absolutely boned last Thursday, but the numbers are the numbers and we are looking for them to bounce back just like we did with all our plays Thursday through Sunday.  Say it with us... seven...and ohhhhh.  Gotta believe deep down in your heart that you are destined to be a fucking WINNER. Rob Santini said it best this afternoon, "Success isn't owned, it's leased and rent is due every day."

 

“Anotha one” our models continue to love Kansas City this year and we find ourselves on them again in this AFC west game on MNF. Coming off an unreal loss to the Raiders last Thursday, the Chiefs on extra rest look to handle business at home. Alex Smith continues his MVP campaign this year as he is 2nd in passing yards and is tied for 1st with 15 passing tds. The Denver Defense has completely shut down the run this year but not so much through the air, ranking 17thin DVOA, per football outsiders.  More importantly they rank 29th in DVOA vs TEs, giving up 68.3 yd/gm. Travis Kelce better start practicing some “legal” td celebrations as this could be a huge game for him. The KC defense is not the best, but more importantly the Denver offense is non-existent on the road. More specifically Trevor Siemien on the road. Below are his home/away splits. The numbers truly speak for themselves. To conclude, the model sees this as a 10 pt game, KC extra rest, in Arrowhead, and Siemien’s play on the road leads us to lay the points.  For all of you maintaining our Kelly formula bet sizing approach this is your standard 5.9 Unit play.