3rd Annual Turkey Triple - ProMathletics Thanksgiving Day Predictions

One of the best days of the NFL season and one of the best days of the year, period, is upon us.  The Lions and Cowboys both hosting games every Thanksgiving is as much a part of the tradition for us as turkey and pumpkin pie.  Ever since the night cap game and the ProMathletics Turkey Day Touts have been added, the day has only gotten better.

Two years ago, we scored the rare Turkey Triple.  There was a fair amount of luck involved, as there was only one true GreenZone game and the second two were just yellow and RedZone leans.  We are looking to repeat that 3-0 record today, but with one key difference...  Thanksgiving day 2018 we have three...count them three...true GreenZone games.  We typically have between five and seven GreenZone games in any given week, so to have three of them on the day of thanks alone is absolutely remarkable.   This isn't just promotional gusto out of us either.  Of our top-5 picks we submit to the Las Vegas SuperContest each week all three of the plays today are part of that entry.

We will share the first play of the day here on the site for free, just because we are nice guys.  However, since there are three true GreenZone games, we can't give away the rest like we have in years past when the others were just entertainment plays.  If you want to see the rest of the plays for today, there are really two options:

  1. Sign up for the free 1-week VIP access on our site.
  2. GET A DEAL.  The 1-week free is for people who are scared and don't understand value.  We are thankful for our subscribers and all of our winners, so we are participating in the seasonal Black Friday special pricing with 50% off any product from now until 11:59pm on Friday.  Using promo code Tgivs50 will get you half off our products that have already drastically been marked down as the season has progressed.  We still have 6 weeks left of the regular season, but we run all the way through February with the Super Bowl.  You can ask anyone who has rode with us the last two years...we don't miss in the playoffs!   

Chicago Bears (-3) at Detroit

6.6 Units – CHI -3.5 or less

3.3 Units – CHI -4 to -5

No Action – CHI -5.5 or more

 

This is an interesting play for a multitude of reasons.  The primary driver of the line down this week has been the uncertainty surrounding the availability of Mitch Trubisky, who is listed as doubtful and will be a game time decision.  Any time a starting QB is down, the public runs as far away from that team as they can.  The difficult part of our process is trying to assess whether that fade action is overdone or not.  In this case, we think the answer is a resounding yes.

Chicago is still our top defense in the league, while Detroit is very comfortably in our bottom-5 and comes into the game VERY banged up.  Yes, the Bears may be starting Chase Daniel, but the Lions may be without a plethora of key starters on both sides of the ball.  Defensively, Ziggy Ansah (DE), Snacks Harrison (DT), Jalen Reeves-Maybin (LB), A'Shawn Robinson (DT), and Darius Slay (CB) were all limited practice participants and are officially listed as questionable.  Anyone who knows anything about the Lions knows these are key starters who are the best players at their position in every case except for Maybin (Davis is best LB).  That's a problem when they are already almost the worst defense in the league.  Even if the Bears offense loses some of the run threat from Trubisky, they are still going against a very bad defense and should still be able to move the ball effectively with a top-tier back-up QB.

On the flip side, the Bears defense is downright nasty.  The Lions have struggled big time in games where they have not been able to establish the run game.  To that end, difference maker and starting running back, Kerryon Johnson, is...you guessed it...not going to suit up today.  Additionally, receiver 1a or 1b, Marvin Jones is not going to be playing today either.  Well, that's ok, they still have Golden Tate and Golladay, right... oh shit, they shipped Tate off to Philly for a pick...yeah.  So, the depletion theme continues for the Leos.  

At the end of the day, the raw numbers have this as a big time GreenZone game for the Bears.  There is the obvious starting QB caveat for the Bears, but in aggregate, the Lions are dealing with a lot more issues than the Bears will be today.  We are going to trust the data on this one and should kick off the three-piece slate with a cover in this divisional match up. 

Side note, if you are thinking the Lions perform better on Thanksgiving Day than their ability...not so fast.  In the last 17 years they are 5-12 on Turkey Day.  They have gone a 4-1 run the last 5 years, but prior to that they were 1-11 in the 2000s.

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